Just nine days after becoming Canada's prime minister, former Goldman Sachs banker Mark Carney called an election Sunday for April 28, plunging the nation into a short but high-stakes campaign overshadowed by an escalating trade war with the United States and incendiary rhetoric from former President Donald Trump.
The election call marks the dramatic culmination of recent upheavals in Canadian politics, characterized by a rapid surge in national pride and unity amid Trump's threats to absorb Canada as the "51st state." These provocative comments, coupled with punishing U.S. tariffs, have reshaped the electoral landscape, breathing new life into Carney's governing Liberal Party and eroding what was once a comfortable Conservative lead.
Until recently, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre appeared poised to coast into power, capitalizing on widespread discontent over housing shortages and the rising cost of living, issues he deftly pinned on the outgoing prime minister, Justin Trudeau. But as Trump's aggressive stance intensified, a wave of Canadian nationalism has swept across the electorate, bolstering support for Carney’s Liberals at precisely the right moment.
According to pollster David Coletto of Abacus Data, the Conservatives maintain a narrow lead nationally - but among voters for whom Trump's aggressive posture is paramount, Liberals lead by almost 30 points, Bloomberg reports.
Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, has sought to position himself as a steady financial hand capable of navigating this turbulent period. Within days of taking office, he distanced himself from several key Trudeau-era policies, including a consumer carbon tax and a planned capital gains tax increase. Carney also swiftly sought stronger defense and economic ties with European allies, signaling a pivot away from reliance on an increasingly unpredictable American partner.
Carney has said Trump’s 51st state rhetoric “will have to stop before we sit down and have a conversation about our broader partnership” with the US.
Both Carney and Poilievre say they’d be better at negotiating with Trump, and have talked about diversifying Canada’s trade relationships while dissolving internal barriers to trade. No party has published a full policy platform yet. -Bloomberg
Poilievre, meanwhile, launched his campaign in Gatineau, Quebec, denouncing Carney and Trudeau as elites disconnected from ordinary Canadians. He accused them of leaving the Canadian economy vulnerable to American pressure through mismanagement and excessive spending.
"After the lost Liberal decade, the question is whether Canadians can afford a fourth Liberal term," Poilievre declared. He pledged a streamlined government, deregulation, and robust support for Canada’s oil and gas sectors.
"I know a lot of people are worried, angry and anxious, and with good reason as a result of the president’s unacceptable threats against our country," he continued. "I share your anger and I share the worry for our future. But I also draw great resolve in knowing that we can transform the anxiety and anger into action."
Yet, the shifting political narrative has complicated Poilievre’s pitch. In French-speaking Quebec, historically inclined toward sovereignty movements, support for separatist Bloc Québécois is waning as voters unify around a national cause. Conversely, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has demanded substantial concessions from Ottawa to bolster her province’s energy sector, threatening a national unity crisis unless swift action is taken.
Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party, traditionally a strong advocate for working-class voters and an ally in propping up Trudeau's government, has seen its support dwindle. Many of its voters appear to be moving toward the Liberals, seeking to consolidate opposition to Trump’s bellicose threats.
With no full policy platforms yet unveiled by any party, Canadians are preparing for an election centered around identity, sovereignty, and economic survival. Once firmly on the defensive, Mark Carney now finds himself on the brink of a historic opportunity—turning Canadian anxiety into political momentum, reshaping the country’s future amid unprecedented external threats.
