It’s ridiculous to have red lines if you are not going to do anything when they are crossed. So what should Biden do?
China Has Crossed Biden’s Red Line on Ukraine
A Wall Street Journal Op-Ed moans China Has Crossed Biden’s Red Line on Ukraine.
President Biden warned China two years ago not to provide “material support” for Russia’s war in Ukraine. On Friday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken conceded that Xi Jinping ignored that warning. China, Mr. Blinken said, was “overwhelmingly the No. 1 supplier” of Russia’s military industrial base, with the “material effect” of having fundamentally changed the course of the war. Whatever Mr. Biden chooses to do next will be momentous for global security and stability.
Mr. Biden can either enforce his red line through sanctions or other means, or he can signal a collapse of American resolve by applying merely symbolic penalties. Beijing and its strategic partners in Moscow, Tehran, Pyongyang and Caracas would surely interpret half-hearted enforcement as a green light to deepen their campaign of global chaos. Mr. Xi sees a historic opportunity here to undermine the West.
What sanctions? On Who? On What? For How Long?
Op-ed writer Matt Pottinger provided no details, he just wants action. He needs to explain what sanctions make any sense at all, and how they would work.
Numerous US sanctions on Russia, China, Iran, all failed. Hell some of them on Russia and China not only failed they backfired.
So funny. Adding to my post on red lines and sanction failures.
— Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) May 1, 2024
How China Gets Around US Sanctions on Semiconductors
On February 18, 2024, I explained How China Gets Around US Sanctions on Semiconductors
How Russia Makes a Mockery of US Sanctions in One Picture
Unprecedented US and EU sanctions against Russia have had no impact on Russia’s oil exports or revenue. Who’s the beneficiary?
On December 29, 2023 I noted How Russia Makes a Mockery of US Sanctions in One Picture
On September 19, 2023, I commented Lesson of the Day: Sanctions Don’t Work Because They Create New Markets
Why Sanctions Fail
Someone always has an incentive to break sanctions.
Sanctions create new markets.
This is how Russia sells oil and how China gets access to equipment and parts.
In the case of chips, the US has forced China into a path to self-sufficiency. Hooray?!
Matt Pottinger wants sanctions. He should name some. Nah, what he really wants is to promote his book “The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan.”
What Color Are Biden’s Red Lines?
On March 10, I asked Are Biden’s Red Lines to Netanyahu Really Yellow or Green?
Presumably you know the answer now, but if not, please consider this idle threat: Biden Threatens Sanctions on Israeli Soldiers Yet Wants More Money for Israel
If you are going to have red lines, I suggest they should be red.
Israel vs China Red Lines
In the case of Israel, there was an easy remedy. Biden could have withheld aid. Instead, when Israel repeatedly crossed lines, Biden stepped up the aid further emboldening Netanyahu.
In the case of China, there are no sanctions or policy actions that make any sense, so there should not be any red lines.
Attempting to set foreign policy for the world is a huge mistake. And setting red lines you cannot or will not do anything about makes one look silly.
