A Warning From China
In a post last month ("Stopping The Sleep Walk Into World War III"), we mentioned Ron Unz's idea for how Russia could reestablish deterrence against NATO in light of recent escalations.
Stopping The Sleep Walk Into World War III
— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) June 4, 2024
Ron Unz's idea about how Russia can reestablish deterrence against NATO. https://t.co/2RHNAAvsAG
Now, it looks like China has stepped in with its own attempt to deter NATO, as Balaji Srinivasan lays out in the X thread below. Before we get to that, a brief reminder of who Srinivasan is, for those who may be unfamiliar with him.
Srinivasan has bachelors, masters, and PhD degrees from Stanford in electrical engineering, as well as another masters from Stanford in chemical engineering. He cofounded a genetics startup, became a general partner in one of Silicon Valley's top venture capital firms, and was the first CTO of Coinbase. He's also something of a political theorist as the author of The Network State.
Now on to his thread.
A bit more context, with some photos.
— Balaji (@balajis) July 9, 2024
Officially it’s an anti-terror exercise.
But, obviously, Beijing is 3000+ miles from Belarus.
And terrorists usually don't fight in formation.
Further context is that Belarus just joined SCO, which is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.… pic.twitter.com/10mdCbyg3P
The full text of that second post reads,
Further context is that Belarus just joined SCO, which is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It's similar to BRICS, but is more focused on Eurasia and Central Asia.
In terms of the meaning of it, China is being passive aggressive about the exercise. But Belarus is much more explicit:
At a press briefing on Friday, Vladimir Kupriyanyuk, the deputy head of the general staff of Belarus’s armed forces, said that the joint exercise [with China] was a response to “the aggressive foreign policy of the West towards the Union State of Belarus and Russia.”
Anyway, seems like an important escalation. Some links below.
- https://en.apa.az/europe/china-belarus-start-joint-military-drills-near-polish-border-442249
- https://tvpworld.com/79192505/chinabelarus-joint-military-training-starts-near-polish-border
- https://www.politico.eu/article/china-bealrus-polish-border-nato-summit-drill-ukraine-russia-war-defense-aggression-fight-ministry/
Srinivasan also linked to this post, by the British economist Philip Pilkington:
Belarus just joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation last week. That was quick! The senile old man in the White House has really screwed the pooch, hasn’t he? 🇨🇳🇧🇾 pic.twitter.com/2qmjjKPXM5
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) July 9, 2024
A Hope For De-Escalation
President of Hungary Viktor Orbán, whose country currently holds the rotating presidency of EU, has been the lone Western leader engaging in high-level shuttle diplomacy between Kiev, Moscow, and Beijing.
Peace mission 3.0#Beijing pic.twitter.com/Jn4ytSWogr
— Orbán Viktor (@PM_ViktorOrban) July 9, 2024
And he is of course friends with the once and possibly future President of the United States, Donald Trump.
President Trump and Melania hosted and Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban at Mar-A-Lago dinner reception yesterday.
— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) March 9, 2024
Orban, will not meet with Biden during his U.S. visit.
The Hungarian leader has become an European icon for advocating restrictions on immigration. pic.twitter.com/9heDLK6OCs
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