April 3 (UPI) — Colorado State University climatologists predict 17 named tropical storms, including nine hurricanes, during the 2025 Atlantic storm season.
Of the nine predicted hurricanes, four are predicted to reach “major” Category 3 or higher status with wind speeds of at least 111 mph.
The number of storms predicted is above the average of 14.4 named storms from 1991 through 2020.
The nine hurricanes prediction likewise exceeds the average of 7.2 during that period. So does the number of major storms predicted, which exceeds the average of 3.2.
“When waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic,” the CSU team said Thursday in a news release.
“These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of above-average water temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season,” the team said.
“A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water” and “leads to a lower atmospheric pressure and more unstable atmosphere,” the storm-forecasting team said. “Both conditions favor hurricane formation.”
The CSU team said a potential El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean might affect Atlantic storm activity.
An El Nino event is a naturally occurring warming of Pacific waters, which the CSU team said typically increases upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean and into the tropical Atlantic.
“These increase upper-level winds result in increased vertical wind shear, disfavoring Atlantic hurricane season formation and intensification,” the CSU team said.
“The absence of these conditions, as we anticipate this year, is generally associated with hurricane-conducive upper-level wind conditions across the tropical Atlantic,” the forecasting team added.
The CSU team says there is a 51% chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the entire U.S. coastline, which is higher than the 1990 to 2020 average of 43%.
The Gulf Coast is most vulnerable to a major hurricane in the United States with a 33% chance of making landfall there versus a 26% chance of striking somewhere along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula.
The forecast team gives the Caribbean a higher probability, 56%, of a major hurricane making landfall, which is higher than the historical average of 47%.
AccuWeather last week issued its Atlantic storm season forecast, which predicts between 13 and 18 named storms, including between seven and 10 hurricanes.
The Atlantic storm season officially starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
