After a fourth straight month of hotter than expected PPI, analysts' expectations for CPI were tightly ranged around 0.3-0.4% MoM and printed +0.3% MoM (slightly below the 0.4% expected). The YoY headline CPI fell to +3.4% as expected from +3.5% prior
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, Services slowed modestly MoM...
On a 3m and 6m annualized basis, Energy costs are reaccelerating most...
Source: Bloomberg
Used car and truck prices along with Gas Utility prices plunged on a MoM basis...
Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) with YoY slowing to +3.6%, also as expected...
Source: Bloomberg
Core goods deflation continues while Core Services continue to rise...
Source: Bloomberg
And one step deeper - the so-called SuperCore: Core CPI Services Ex-Shelter index - rose 0.5% MoM up to 5.05% YoY - the hottest since April 2023...
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood of SuperCore CPI, Education costs rose (to pay for cleaning up all those protests?) and Transportation Services dominated on a YoY basis...
Source: Bloomberg
And while Shelter costs rose on a MoM basis, they continues to slow on a YoY basis...
Source: Bloomberg
Goods prices are deflating at the fastest pace since April 2004, while Services prices are stuck around +5.3% YoY...
Source: Bloomberg
We note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden's term began (July 2022 was the closest with 'unchanged'), which leaves overall prices up over 19.5% since Bidenomics was unleashed (compares with +8% during Trump's term). And prices have never been more expensive...
Source: Bloomberg
That is an average of 5.5% per annum (more than triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump's term).
Finally, and most notably it was a miss... but not for the reason expected...
It was a miss but not for the reason expected: OER catch down STILL to kick in; next few CPI print will be a dovish meltdown https://t.co/w1px0HrJN0
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 15, 2024
Which means the next few months CPI will be even bigger misses...
