The number of Americans filing for jobless claims for the first time fell modestly to 239k, from 248k last week, right at expectations. Both SA and NSA declined and we point out that we have not been above the psychological 250k level since mid-June...
Source: Bloomberg
California and Texas saw big drops in initial claims while Virginia and Iowa saw increases. California's big drop follows a major rise the prior week...
However, it is important to remember that two distortions that likely boosted initial claims over the last few months - potentially fraudulent filings in Ohio and expanded eligibility for unemployment insurance in Minnesota.
Continuing claims bucked its recent trend, pushing back above 1.7mm (1.716mm to be exact) for the first time since the first week of July...
However, as Goldman also points out, ongoing seasonal distortions have likely weighed on continuing claims over the last few months, and we estimate they could exert a cumulative drag on the level of continuing claims of 375k between April and September.
So more of the same, all indications suggest a strong labor market entirely dislocated from The Fed's tightening moves.
