Mexico’s handover of some of its most notorious imprisoned drug lords to the United States is part of a more confrontational approach by President Claudia Sheinbaum against ultra-violent cartels, experts say.
The mass transfer of 29 alleged drug traffickers has sparked concerns of a potential violent backlash from some of the world’s most powerful criminal organizations.
It comes as Mexico seeks to avert sweeping tariffs that US President Donald Trump has vowed to impose on its exports next week.
What are the implications of the surprise delivery to US authorities of senior figures in several drug cartels, a number of which have been designated terrorist organizations by Trump?
Turning point in anti-drug fight?
While she ruled out declaring “war” on drug cartels after taking office in October, Sheinbaum has quietly dropped her predecessor’s “hugs not bullets” strategy, which prioritized tackling the root causes of criminal violence over security operations.
Mexican authorities have recently announced a series of major drug seizures and the capture of suspects including two prominent members of the Sinaloa Cartel, which is gripped by bloody internal fighting.
“The number of arrests, drug seizures and now extraditions is increasing significantly. There is a strategy of absolute confrontation with the cartels,” said David Saucedo, a security consultant.
The increased pressure from Washington represents an “ideal moment” for Sheinbaum to shape her own security policy, since it is a “frankly critical” problem, said Javier Oliva, a defense and security specialist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
In November, outgoing US ambassador Ken Salazar said former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s “hugs not bullets” policy strategy had failed.
Spiraling criminal violence, much of it linked to drug trafficking and gangs, has seen around 480,000 people murdered across Mexico since 2006.
How will cartels react?
Mexican cartels have a history of violent responses to detentions or extraditions of their leaders, and experts fear this time may be no different.
“It’s highly likely that there will be a furious reaction. It’s not the same for a drug lord to be imprisoned in Mexico as it is to be in a high-security prison in the United States,” Saucedo said.
In Mexico, many drug lords are able to run their organizations from behind bars.
“High-security prisons quickly become comfortable prisons for drug traffickers,” Saucedo said.
The prospect of life imprisonment in a US jail could also make it harder to capture more drug lords, he said.
“They will shoot until the last bullet and spill the last drop of blood to avoid being taken to the United States,” Saucedo warned.
The fall of kingpins could also further fragment their organizations, said Oliva, leading to bloody turf wars.
Politicians exposed?
The possibility of the suspects becoming protected witnesses in the United States has raised speculation that they could lift the lid on high-level corruption in Mexico.
Their testimonies could expose not only their own organizations, but also “the circles of political, police and military protection that support the cartels,” Saucedo said.
Such revelations would allow Trump to increase his demands on the Mexican government, which he has accused without proof of colluding with drug trafficking, Oliva said.
“The pressure will continue” both to capture criminals and to expose “complicity in political power,” he added
