Election 2024: Biden Gains Ground on Trump

Authored by GoldFix ZH Edit

Intro:

In the post: Trump Vs Biden: Polls, Odds, & Asset Allocation Implications, ZeroHedge breaks down current polling changes and likely market behavior should either Biden or Trump win.
As the election nears, the economy will matter even more in voting decisions. Divided electorate aside, Biden needs to get his base out, and to do that he must motivate them via good economic numbers.

It’s Gonna Be “The Economy Stupid” if The Fed Eases…

Looking at this chart one way, Biden is dead in the water. But according to institutional Bond manager “Hayek & Keynes” if Biden’s approval *does* uptick it will be because of more good economic good news:

“Consumer sentiment vs Biden’s approval rating…. If the economy holds up, Biden’s odds are going to improve dramatically in the coming weeks…” - Source

Lets face it, Biden can’t fix the geopolitical situation unilaterally even if he wanted to. In that regard, Biden’s better served simply hoping the Middle East doesn’t get worse. If he can get the geopolitics out of the headlines, he has a chance. Conversely, if he cannot, the world is voting for Trump.

Thus: If you feel the Fed is politically pressured and they *do* ease, Biden  has a good chance against Trump in November1 On that note, UBS released its updated tracker for polls, betting odds, and catalysts on the 2024 US presidential election to gauge the potential market reaction to shifts in odds. And it shows Biden gaining ground on Trump

Former President Donald Trump holds an 11pp lead over President Biden in the online betting dealers (Chart 1), slightly lower than the 16pp lead at the peak (Chart 2). Political event prediction website PredictIt has a different opinion, showing Biden with a 2pp lead.

But Biden is still 4 percentage points below Trump in the average poll