As fully expected, the EU is looking at options to restore Russian natural gas flowing into Europe (and even presumably via Ukraine), discussions which have of late taken on more urgency given Ukraine's front lines are collapsing and a deal to end the war is looking inevitable, but whether something takes shape sooner or later remains the big question.
EU officials are mulling resumption of purchases of Russian pipeline gas which could be part of any potential settlement to the war, Financial Times has reported, citing unnamed sources. The outlet stated that advocates of such a 'controversial' plan, which includes Hungarian and German leaders, state that this could be an underlying incentive to maintain peace - the stability of Europe's energy market.
"There is pressure from some big member states on energy prices and this is one way to bring those down, of course," one official told the FT. And separately a senior EU official acknowledged that "In the end, everybody wants lower energy costs."
But the mere suggestion of any such future large-scale return to natural gas in the EU is sure to trigger immense political backlash, which is more convenient for those currently benefiting from the current war time blockage in gas transfers and sanctions.
Pushback on the political front is going to be strong, and the argument will be made of 'appeasing Russia' and 'abandoning Ukraine' - and of allowing more revenue for Moscow's war machine. Per the FT:
Floating the resumption of pipeline sales from Russia has infuriated Brussels officials and diplomats from some eastern European countries, many of whom have spent the past three years working to reduce the amount of Russian energy being imported into the bloc. “It’s madness,” said one of the officials. “How stupid could we be to even think about that as an option?”
...Or they could just be looking out for the interests and energy needs of their own respective populations.
As for who is benefitting most from the current state of things as some EU states scramble to make up for depleted supply:
The revival of the debate on gas sales has unsettled some US LNG exporters seeking to sign long-term supply deals with European companies. They fear that any restart of Ukrainian transit could make their products uncompetitive, according to two of the officials.
As we pointed out at the start of this month...
Europe has gone from relying entirely on cheap Russian gas to relying entirely on expensive US LNG pic.twitter.com/C4UiUH1W81
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 1, 2025
Slovakia and Hungary are among those who continue to rely most heavily on continued Russian gas purchases, and have been resistant to the bloc's efforts at imposing diversification. To review:
Russia halted pipeline gas deliveries to Europe via Ukraine on Jan. 1 after Kyiv refused to renegotiate a transit agreement in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion. Prior to the cutoff, the pipeline transported around 50% of Russia’s pipeline gas exports — mainly to Slovakia, Austria, Hungary and non-EU member Moldova.
Despite banning nearly all Russian pipeline gas and oil imports, the EU imported a record 17.8 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia in 2024. The bloc has committed to phasing out Russian fossil fuel imports entirely by 2027.
While the EU banned Russian crude oil and coal following Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, it has not yet imposed restrictions on Russian pipeline gas or LNG.
You will find more infographics at Statista
The biggest beneficiary of non-Russian LNG imports which have for the time being been fulling the supply gap, of course, the US which has seen its LNG exports to Europe soar since the Ukraine war and since either the US or Ukraine (or working in tandem) blew up the Nordstream pipeline, making (expensive) US sourced LNG one of the few realistic alternatives for Europe. In other words, Europe has gone from relying entirely on cheap Russian gas to relying entirely on expensive US LNG.
