Fox New Poll: Trump bests Biden by 4 points in Arizona

The economy is the most important issue to Arizonans, and by a double-digit margin, more of them trust former President Donald Trump to handle it than President Joe Biden.

That helps explain Trump’s edge in the presidential race, according to a new Fox News survey of Arizona registered voters.

In a potential 5-way race, Trump is ahead of Biden by 43%-39%, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receiving 10% support, Jill Stein 2%, and Cornel West 1%. Trump’s 4-point advantage is within the survey’s margin of sampling error.  

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In a hypothetical 2-way matchup, again Biden (45%) trails Trump (49%) by 4 points. He also trails the 49% share of the vote he received in 2020 by 4 points.

Biden’s best groups in the head-to-head include moderates (+28 points), independents (+14), urban voters (+12), college graduates (+11), and Hispanics (+6). The most important group that he is clearly underperforming with is women (+2). 

Trump’s advantage in the matchup mainly comes from Whites without a college degree (+23), rural voters (+18), men (+12), those under age 45 (+9), and White voters (+7). In fact, he is ahead among every age group except those 65 and over, who go for Biden by 4. 

The small subgroup of those backing Kennedy go for Trump over Biden by 14 points in the 2-way, although another 20% is either unsure, wouldn’t vote, or favors someone else. 

Almost all Republicans back Trump, while an overwhelming majority of Democrats and a plurality of independents favor Biden. So how is Trump ahead? He is helped by more Arizona voters currently self-identifying as a Republican than a Democrat.  

Biden won Arizona by less than 0.5% in 2020 (fewer than 11,000 votes), turning the state blue for the first time since 1996 and only the second time since 1948. Trump’s 2016 victory was by about 3.5 points.

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On the issues, the economy, election integrity, and immigration are the top three on voters’ minds as they choose their presidential candidate, with over half saying each of those are extremely important. Fewer say the same about health care, abortion, foreign policy, and climate change.  

By wide margins, more voters trust Trump on two of the three top issues — the economy (+14 points) and immigration (+20) — while Biden is narrowly preferred on election integrity (+3). 

Biden is also favored on climate change by 12 points (the lowest priority to voters), on abortion by 6 points, and on health care by just 2 points. On foreign policy, more trust Trump by 8 points.  

Notably, four years ago, roughly equal numbers in this border state trusted each candidate on handling immigration (Biden +1 point). 

Among Democrats, the issues of abortion, election integrity, and health care rate highest. For both Republicans and independents, it is immigration, the economy, and election integrity. 

On candidate characteristics, three-quarters say it is extremely important for the candidate to be mentally sound enough to serve effectively (74% extremely important) and to be honest and trustworthy (73%). Nearly 7 in 10 prioritize backing one who is willing to fight for people like them (67%) and is a strong leader (66%). Fewer than 4 in 10 say it is extremely important the candidate is not too extreme (37%). 

Trump is preferred over Biden among voters saying it is extremely important a candidate is a strong leader (Trump +22 points), mentally sound (+19), and willing to fight for people like them (+14). Biden is the pick for those prioritizing a candidate who is not too extreme (Biden +20), while the two are about even among those wanting one who is honest (Biden +2). 

"Hispanics and younger voters are abandoning Biden, and many of those suspicious of the ultimate MAGA candidate seem to have even greater concerns about the current president," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who along with Democrat Chris Anderson conducts Fox News surveys. 

The survey, released Wednesday, finds nearly 6 in 10 Arizonans are either getting ahead financially or holding steady and those voters choose Biden, while 4 in 10 are falling behind and they go big for Trump. 

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Biden’s job rating is negative by 14 points, with 43% approving and 57% disapproving. Ninety-two percent of those who approve of Biden’s performance support his re-election. 

Former US President Donald Trump arrives during a "Get Out The Vote" rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, US, on Saturday, March 2, 2024. Trump said he will impose tit-for-tat tariffs if he is reelected president, reiterating one of his isolationist policy goals that has already raised concern at home and overseas.  (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

"As strange as it might sound, this poll should alarm the Trump campaign," says Anderson. "If Trump can’t break 50% while voters believe he would do a better job than Biden on immigration and the economy, and disapproval of Biden is near 60%, then what is it going to take?" 

Twice as many Arizonans strongly disapprove (46%) as strongly approve (23%) of Biden.  

Poll-pourri

In a generic Congressional ballot test, 42% of Arizona voters support the Democratic candidate in their district and 48% the Republican candidate. A comparison to the presidential vote preference shows neither candidate is a drag on his party, with 93% of those backing the Democrat in their district going for Biden and 93% of those favoring the Republican candidate backing Trump. 

Nearly one-quarter of non-MAGA Republicans (23%) say they would vote for Biden if the election were today, while a sizable 69% majority supports Trump. In the 5-way race, only 53% of non-MAGA Republicans back Trump, with 20% going for Biden and 17% to Kennedy. 

Fox News polling found among voters under age 35, most disapprove of Biden (70%), over half are hurting financially (53%), and more favor Trump in the head-to-head ballot (+8 points. (Shawn Thew)

When rating their financial situation, non-MAGA Republicans look a lot like independents, as 43% of both groups say they are falling behind compared to 56% among all Republicans. 

More Republicans (63%) than Democrats (55%) say they are extremely interested in the 2024 election, and more MAGA Republicans feel that way (68%) than non-MAGA (52%). 

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Among voters under age 35, most disapprove of Biden (70%), over half are hurting financially (53%), and more favor Trump in the head-to-head ballot (+8 points).

As has been the case in previous Fox News battleground state surveys, for the most part, Trump is hitting his 2020 vote percentages while Biden is generally missing his mark by 2 to 6 points.

Conducted March 7-11, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,121 Arizona registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (210) and cellphones (625) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (286). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.

Check out more recent surveys from Fox News Polling:

Michigan (February 8-12)

North Carolina (February 8-12)

Georgia (January 26-30)

Wisconsin (January 26-30)

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.