Biden has edge over GOP opponents
Former President Donald Trump maintains his large lead in the Republican presidential primary contest, as support doubles for Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis hits a new low, according to a new Fox News national survey.
Fifty-three percent of Republican primary voters prefer Trump, down a touch from 56% in June.
That gives him a 37-point lead over DeSantis, who receives the backing of 16%. That’s down from 22% support in June and a high of 28% in February.
Some 11% of GOP primary voters favor Ramaswamy, about twice what he received previously.
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The remaining candidates garner single digits, including Mike Pence at 5%, Nikki Haley at 4%, Chris Christie and Tim Scott at 3% each, and Doug Burgum at 1%. Larry Elder, Francis Suarez, Will Hurd, Asa Hutchinson, and Perry Johnson receive less than 1%.
Fifty-three percent of Republican primary voters prefer Trump, down a touch from 56% in June. (Fox News)
"The story here is Ramaswamy," says Daron Shaw, a Republican who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. "He is the first candidate to break from the pack to challenge DeSantis, and while he’s a long way from threatening Trump, he’s taking steps in the right direction."
GOP primary voters give Trump a significant lead among most groups, although he only retains 60% of his 2020 presidential election supporters, as 16% of them go for DeSantis and 10% for Ramaswamy.
Here’s another example of Ramaswamy rising. When asked their second choice, Trump supporters pick DeSantis (37%), Ramaswamy (22%), and Pence (11%). In March, it was DeSantis 52%, Pence 16%, and Ramaswamy 0%.
When asked their second choice, Trump supporters pick DeSantis (37%), Ramaswamy (22%), and Pence (11%). In March, it was DeSantis 52%, Pence 16%, and Ramaswamy 0%. (Fox News)
On Trump’s federal indictment over efforts to overturn the 2020 election, among the half of Republican primary voters who don’t think he did anything seriously wrong, 75% of them back him. He also receives 31% support from those saying he did something illegal or wrong.
On Trump’s federal indictment over efforts to overturn the 2020 election, among the half of Republican primary voters who don’t think he did anything seriously wrong, 75% of them back him. He also receives 31% support from those saying he did something illegal or wrong. (Fox News)
On the Democratic side, as has been the case since May, President Joe Biden receives 64% among Democratic primary voters, leading Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (17%) and Marianne Williamson (9%).
Roughly equal numbers of voters say they plan to participate in the Democratic (40%) and the Republican (41%) primary or caucus in their state.
The general election matchups currently show a 2024 squeaker. Support for Biden stays between 44-42% in hypothetical head-to-heads against each Republican tested, yet he tops all of them narrowly: Haley and Scott by 6 points, DeSantis by 5, Ramaswamy by 4, and Trump by 3. Each matchup is within or at the poll’s margin of error.
Support for Biden stays between 44-42% in hypothetical head-to-heads against each Republican tested, yet he tops all of them narrowly: Haley and Scott by 6 points, DeSantis by 5, Ramaswamy by 4, and Trump by 3. Each matchup is within or at the poll’s margin of error. (Fox News)
Bottom line, none of the candidates will be able to make a strong electability argument at the August 23 Republican presidential primary debate hosted by Fox News Channel in Milwaukee.
In each matchup, Biden is preferred among women, Black voters, those with a college degree, and younger voters. He has double-digit leads among Hispanics – except against Trump, where he is up by just 9 points. In 2020, he won the group by 28 points.
Mainly though, Biden’s 3-point edge over Trump comes from greater party loyalty, as 88% of Democrats back him compared to 83% of Republicans for Trump. Independents split 29% apiece, with 38% saying they will support someone else.
Mainly though, Biden’s 3-point edge over Trump comes from greater party loyalty, as 88% of Democrats back him compared to 83% of Republicans for Trump. Independents split 29% apiece, with 38% saying they will support someone else. (Fox News)
Ramaswamy is the only Republican to top Biden among independents (by 8 points), however he receives just 75% among Republicans compared to Biden’s 87% among Democrats.
"If you assume the partisans will come on board, Ramaswamy’s strength among independents is intriguing," says Shaw.
Among the 15% who are undecided in the Biden-Trump matchup, most disapprove of Biden’s job performance (87%) and view him unfavorably (85%) -- and have a negative view of Trump also (89%).
About one voter in five has an unfavorable opinion of both Biden and Trump, and that group splits their support 21% apiece, with 47% favoring someone else.
Despite Biden’s narrow advantage in the matchups, by a 24-point margin voters doubt he will win in 2024. Four years ago, they expected Trump would be re-elected (by 6 points) and 12 years ago they thought Obama wouldn’t (by 10 points).
Sixty-six percent of Democrats forecast another four years for Biden, while only 23% of independents and 9% of Republicans agree.
Of all candidates tested, Kennedy’s 46% favorable rating is the highest. That comes more from Republicans (58%) and independents (44%) than Democrats (36%).
Biden’s 43% favorable is higher than any of the Republican presidential candidates, including Trump’s at 39%, while majorities view both candidates negatively (57% and 61% respectively).
Biden’s 43% favorable is higher than any of the Republican presidential candidates, including Trump’s at 39%, while majorities view both candidates negatively (57% and 61% respectively). (Fox News)
Fully 85% of self-identified Democrats have a positive view of Biden, which is the same rating former President Obama received at this point in his re-election campaign (August 2011).
The GOP candidates trail Biden on intraparty favorability. Among self-identified Republicans, Trump garners a 78% favorable, followed by DeSantis at 66% and Ramaswamy at 51%. Next, it’s Pence and Scott (both 45%), followed by Haley (42%), Christie (24%), and Burgum (9%).
Name recognition is an issue for some, as many Republicans are unable to rate Burgum (78% can’t rate), Scott (42%), Haley (35%), and Ramaswamy (35%).
Currently, 39% of voters have a positive view of Vice President Kamala Harris, while 56% rate her negatively. Among Democrats, her favorable rating is 77%.
Conducted August 11-14, 2023, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,002 registered voters nationwide who were randomly selected from a voter file and spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 5 points for Democratic and 4.5 for Republican primary voters.
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Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
