With constant fearmongery about Trump's tariffs prompting a panic-flation, it is interesting to note that inflation data has been serially disappointing in recent weeks (printing below expectations)...
Source: Bloomberg
And this morning we get The Fed's (old) favorite inflation indicator (until they changed their minds because it didn't fit the narrative) - Core PCE - print at +2.8% YoY (flat from the prior month).
Source: Bloomberg
Headline PCE rose to +2.6% (as expected)...
Source: Bloomberg
The so-called SuperCore inflation remains very sticky, well above The Fed's mandate...
Source: Bloomberg
While Cyclical PCE continues to slide, Acyclical inflation (the segment that The Fed can't really 'manage'), pushed higher...
Source: Bloomberg
As the cost of goods keeps rising, so does income and spending (the former +0.4% as expected and the latter +0.7%, more than expected)...
Source: Bloomberg
Remember when the Biden admin scrambled to revise GDP higher and artificially inflated the savings rate to make it possible.
Well guess what happened after all the data revisions...
Finally, not a pretty picture...
Source: Bloomberg
So will inflation be resurgent due to Trump tariffs... or the lagged impact of the money supply surge of the last 12 months to try and pump Bidenomics?
