Why Next Time May Be Different (And Worse)
In our last post (Maybe the Biden Administration is Damaging The Dollar Intentionally), we included a chart showing Chinese dumping of Treasuries.
Maybe The Biden Administration Is Damaging The Dollar Intentionally
— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) May 20, 2024
Biden's longtime economic advisor wants to see the dollar dethroned.https://t.co/5gQGjaL1IU$ORLA $GLD
British economist Philip Pilkington uses that chart as a jumping off point for the disturbing X thread below. He points out a key difference in Chinese ownership of U.S. Treasuries now:
It used to be that these bonds were bought by China and other governments/central banks. These were stable buyers because it was part of their trade strategy - prop up the US trade deficit to sell more exports. Now increasingly they are bought by private foreign investors.
Unlike central banks, these private investors are rate-sensitive. Unlike during 2008, when Treasuries rallied as a haven trade, Pilkington warns that the next time we have a recession in the U.S., and the Fed cuts rates significantly, these Chinese private investors are going to dump their Treasuries.
And that could lead to a decline in American living standards of about 27%.
2/ What matters here is not overall US government debt but rather the balance of payments. If a country runs a trade deficit this must be offset by financial inflows on the financial account to maintain equilibrium. pic.twitter.com/5GNIHsnPw6
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
4/ Here we see that the most important component by a very large amount as 'Debt Securities' that are 'Long Term'. In 2023 $924bn were issued and $103bn bought, meaning net issuance of around $821bn. pic.twitter.com/bYk6VvOQtX
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
6/ It used to be that these bonds were bought by China and other governments/central banks. These were stable buyers because it was part of their trade strategy - prop up the US trade deficit to sell more exports. Now increasingly they are bought by private foreign investors. pic.twitter.com/Bb8Zj0tmsm
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
8/ This will likely happen in a recession when the Fed lowers rates to counteract the downturn, maybe even more QE. And in a recession tax receipts will fall and unemployment claims will rise - so the US will need to issue even more debt. This will only exarcerbate the problem. pic.twitter.com/UeivJDoNDg
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
10/ Smart strategists on Wall Street understand what is happening, but if you look in the mainstream financial press you will not see any of these stories anywhere. pic.twitter.com/6Q4Qsn0FPD
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
12/ Being blissfully unaware of what is actually happening Western leaders continue to think they control the situation and go around making demands on the Chinese. The Chinese are baffled by this, knowing that they are the United States' creditor. pic.twitter.com/Ov4UVsGS6X
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
14/ How much could living standards fall? It is hard to tell. Simple modelling suggests that US living standards are around 27% too high relative to their trade deficit. pic.twitter.com/v66n0Lw11E
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
15/ The people who understand the dynamics at play wait for a recession to kick off to see if lower rates and higher debt issuance will lead to foreign investors dumping Treasuries and forcing the US trade deficit to close - and living standards to fall accordingly.
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
END/ pic.twitter.com/018tN3Usv8
Hopefully, after the election Fed Chairman Powell will reach out to the winner and suggest a course correction (a combination of rate hikes and fiscal tightening) to avoid this scenario. Take the pain in 2025, so markets and the economy can recover by the midterm elections in 2026.
Making Hay While The Sun Shines
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Our system updates its top ten names every day the market is open though, and our #1 name as of Monday's close is reporting earnings this week. Later today, we plan to post an options trade on it, one with a potential upside of about 200% versus a potential downside of 100%.
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