Oct. 9 (UPI) — The United States seems to be a giant Gulliver, entangled not by Lilliputians but by transformative events that appear beyond its competence to resolve. One is the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Helene, which ravaged much of America’s southeastern states in late September. Now Hurricane Milton is about to land another deadly punch.
After Hurricane Katrina in 2005 exposed such incompetence in America’s ability to respond to natural disasters, it seemed incomprehensible that future administrations would be found wanting and repeat that blunder. Yet, the massive destruction of Helene may have exceeded any rational response. Still, President Joe Biden and his administration can be criticized for seeming unprepared for this catastrophe.
In addition, wars in Ukraine and Gaza have been joined by Israel’s assault against Hezbollah in Lebanon. This has led politicians such as Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump to warn of a third world war if his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, is elected president in November. Much of Trump’s bluster is hot air, void of substance. But that does not preclude the possibility of a wider regional war in the Middle East and Persian Gulf.
Given the planning that has gone into Israel’s strategy to defeat Hezbollah, first by decapitating much of its leadership and then by striking against its military power, how far Jerusalem will go in this war is unknown in Western capitals. Iran is the ultimate center of gravity for Israel. Whether Iran’s large but feeble ballistic missile attack will give Israel reason to strike at the country’s nuclear, oil infrastructure, or other targets of value, likewise is to be determined over the coming days or weeks.
With the election less than four weeks away, it is drawing much of the nation’s attention, no matter the seriousness of these tectonic events at home and abroad. One wonders if the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 and the great San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906 had occurred on or around Oct. 7, 1940, how the nation and President Franklin D. Roosevelt would have coped with both and the election.
Still, what might the Biden administration be doing with these crises?
Too often, finding or inventing big ideas to resolve big problems is elusive. As tactics too often substitute for strategy, political expediency similarly replaces sounder strategic thinking. Helene and the ongoing wars make this case. Obviously, no one wants the rescue and rebuilding effort to flounder. Nor do other than a few wish to see these wars escalate.
President Dwight D. Eisenhower argued that in dealing with a large problem, to expand that problem when considering a response. Regarding Helene, why not use Ike’s logic to suggest or propose a Marshall-like plan for the region. The analogy is clear. Europe was devastated by war. Hurricanes have done the same to part of America.
In this case, rebuilding will take years. A Marshall plan would bring together private and public sector resources and would probably require a trillion or more dollars. It would need to have immediate, mid-term and long-term goals. Using Department of Defense assets for planning, this could start immediately. As Project Warp Speed produced a clinical response to COVID-19 in a remarkably short time, use of AI could expedite this process.
To gain political consensus, the effort should be co-chaired by former presidents, such as George W. Bush, Bill Clinton or Barack Obama, and also include a board of distinguished members from Congress and former governors from the region. In a sense, this plan would resemble prior efforts to deal with the Great Depression and the financial crisis of 2008. Much of the funding could be on the basis of long-term loans that, as communities grew, could be paid off.
Regarding the wars in the Middle East, Biden could call for a peace conference to include not only the participants, but representation from the major Arab states in the Gulf and other Muslim countries. While it is unlikely this could be achieved before the election, the initiative would be in place to settle the broader issues in the longer term.
As Biden is not running for re-election, this could be his legacy. The new Marshall plan can start now and have immediate impact. A broader peace conference will take time. However, escalation and a larger war must be avoided. Of course, how China and Russia would be engaged is a separate problem and both could be obstacles.
Big problems need big ideas to be solved. And none were ever needed more than now.
Harlan Ullman is UPI’s Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior advisor at Washington’s Atlantic Council, the prime author of “shock and awe” and author of “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.” Follow him @harlankullman. The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
