Voting begins on Friday in India’s massive election for the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the national Parliament.
Billed as the world’s largest democratic election, the process is broken into seven phases that will six weeks to complete. The result will determine if Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) serves a third term in office.
Most analysts believe Modi is a shoo-in for a third term, as his BJP surfs on high approval ratings from the fastest-growing economy in the world and a booming stock market that surpassed Hong Kong’s exchange at the end of 2023. The economy has stumbled a bit in 2024 but not by nearly enough to make a critical mass of voters seek alternative leadership.
Modi has also benefited from forging a stronger relationship with the United States, whose government sees India as a vital strategic partner against China, while the private sector has made India a destination of choice for “de-risking” efforts to diversify supply chains out of China.
U.S. President Joe Biden, left, and India Prime Minister Narendra Modi talks during the G20 leaders summit in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, Nov. 15, 2022. Biden has made it a mission for the U.S. to build friendships overseas, and the next few weeks will offer a vivid demonstration of the importance he’s placing on a relationship with Modi (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara, Pool, File).
The Indian opposition is energetic but fractured, with more than 40 parties gathered in a restless coalition behind the Indian National Congress party (INC), commonly known as “Congress.”
The effective leader of the Congress party is Rahul Gandhi, scion of a fabled Indian political dynasty. Gandhi is young, charismatic, and well-educated, but he has been unable to deliver a national victory in his ten years as the face of Congress.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) will battle Rahul Gandhi (R) as he seeks a second mandate from India’s 900 million voters (AFP/File Tolga AKMEN, PUNIT PARANJPE).
Gandhi was sentenced to two years in prison in 2023 for allegedly defaming Modi by linking the prime minister to two notorious corruption suspects who coincidentally have the same last name.
Gandhi himself was already out on bail from no less than five corruption investigations. He claimed all of these charges were politically motivated. The Indian Supreme Court more or less agreed with him on the defamation charge in April 2023, suspending his sentence and allowing him to run for Parliament again.
On Wednesday, the BBC mused that the corruption and defamation charges, combined with his indifferent performance when he was elected to Parliament in the 2000s and his often petulant demeanor, earned Gandhi the sobriquet of “spoiled prince” among many Indian voters. Many voters see him as a child of wealth and privilege who talks about socialism, while Modi is the hard-working son of a tea-seller who rose to the highest levels of success and brought India with him.
Gandhi seems angrier after the defamation case, which may not play well with voters who desire stability and continued prosperity, although it might also energize him enough to lead his party to some gains in the upcoming election and possibly set him as a contender for prime minister in 2029. He barnstormed across India to prepare for the 2024 election, and he made a sizable portion of that journey on foot.
On Thursday, Gandhi accused Modi and BJP of using politicized investigations to smear opposition leaders, including himself, while allowing high-ranking BJP members to walk away from serious charges.
Gandhi was particularly incensed that Pinarayi Vijayan, chief minister of the state of Kerala, remains “untouched” by law enforcement despite allegations of corruption. Vijayan was linked to a scandal involving the improper granting of a contract to a Canadian firm when he was energy minister in the 1990s, and, more recently, to an embezzlement scandal involving a bank in Kerala.
New Delhi, India – February 8: Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan addresses as he leads the Left Democratic Front (LDF) protest against the central government’s alleged discrimination against Kerala at the Jantar Mantar in New Delhi on February 08, 2024 (Photo by Hardik Chhabra/ The India Today Group via Getty Images).
Modi actually did criticize Vijayan for the bank scandal on Tuesday, denouncing him as a liar and promising compensation for the bank’s depositors. Modi further criticized Congress for not doing anything about the Kerala bank debacle.
“The INDIA bloc was formed for just one reason as they know Modi will finish them off. They are fighting here, while in Delhi they are one,” Modi said, habitually referring to himself in the third person. INDIA is the acronym adopted by the opposition political coalition that Congress leads.
Congress and its coalition allies have a solid base of support, but Indians saw the 2014 election that brought Modi to power as a repudiation of five decades of Congress leadership, and many of them are still in a repudiating mood. Even within the Congress faithful, there is a growing sense that the Gandhi family should be replaced as party leaders. A solid performance over the next six weeks would go a long way toward reassuring party members there is still some magic in the Gandhi name.
The opposition’s big opportunity could be mounting domestic and international unease about BJP’s strident Hindu nationalism, Modi’s hostility to opposition media, and income inequality. Congress is running on a manifesto that includes higher minimum wages, welfare increases, price supports for farmers, and affirmative action for marginalized groups.
“Most Indian politicians would accept inequality as the price of rapid economic growth. He refuses,” a Congress spokesman said of Gandhi’s leftward tilt.
The Lok Sabha election is so complex that election officials are still working out the details; the schedule for Phase Three of voting, which begins on May 7, was just announced on Wednesday evening. A lot could happen between now and Phase Seven.
One late-breaking development was Tuesday’s surprising and highly successful counterterrorism operation against the militant Maoist wing of the banned Communist Party of India (CPI).
The rebels, known as Naxalites, have been conducting sporadic terrorist attacks since 1967. Tuesday’s operation reportedly killed several top leaders and wiped out a vital rebel camp. Modi administration officials hailed it as the biggest victory against the Naxalites in three decades.
Congress accused BJP of politicizing the operation to influence the Lok Sabha election, but BJP responded by slamming a Congress spokeswoman for describing the 29 slain rebels as “martyrs” and accusing Congress of flirting with treason to cadge votes from Maoist sympathizers.
“Instead of welcoming the action by the security forces, the Congress has done what is expected of them,” BJP spokesman Shehzad Poonawalla sneered on Thursday.
“It is unthinkable that [Congress] claimed the Naxals were essentially martyrs. It put a question mark on the bravery of our security forces,” he said.
“Congress leaders are advocating for Naxals as they are losing in the elections. They are not hesitant to stand by terrorists while opposing Modi,” he charged.
The Associated Press (AP) thought Congress might have a shot with young Indian voters worried about rising unemployment in their demographic, but the opposition could blow that opportunity by appearing fractious, untrustworthy, and unserious compared to Modi’s highly disciplined party.
