Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa faces the most intense challenge to his authority since taking power in a coup eight years ago, with infighting in his ruling party and public anger over a failing economy.
In outright defiance of the 82-year-old leader, a one-time veteran of his ZANU-PF party has called for nationwide demonstrations on March 31.
“The task of removing Mnangagwa has already begun,” Blessed Geza, also known as “Bombshell”, said on social media, dressed in military fatigues.
In response, police announced Thursday they had reinforced their positions across the country and would take action against anyone “inciting violence”.
But with the political opposition in the impoverished country weakened after years of harsh repression and Geza himself in hiding, it is unclear if people will heed the call to protest.
Many may be reluctant to get involved after mass protests in 2017 supported the military in ending Robert Mugabe’s decades in power, replacing him with Mnangagwa, then his vice-president, who is now seen as just as autocratic and self-serving.
Takudzwa Dube, a recent graduate eking out a living from menial jobs, said she would sit out Monday’s protests “for security reasons”.
Sky-high unemployment has left people too focused on fighting for survival “to be concerned about demonstrating”, the 24-year-old told AFP in the city of Bulawayo.
It is moves by a faction of the ZANU-PF to extend Mnangagwa’s mandate beyond his constitutionally limited two terms, ending in 2028, that has led the anger to boil over this time.
“The scenario as it stands is a chaotic power succession contestation,” said Tendai Mbanje, political analyst at the Johannesburg-based African Centre for Governance.
“The country is highly tense, with high securitisation in major towns and cities, which signals a situation that may implode,” Mbanje, a Zimbabwe native, told AFP.
Zimbabwe is in a state of “toxic functionalism,” he said.
‘Coup-proofing’
Geza and his faction of veterans of the war that led to independence in 1980 are pushing to replace Mnangagwa with his vice president, Constantino Chiwenga, a retired general who orchestrated the coup against Mugabe.
The power struggle bears the hallmarks of the events that preceded 2017’s dramatic coup, Zimbabwean activist and leader of the opposition LEAD party, Linda Masarira, told AFP.
“The current factional battles within ZANU-PF are playing out in ways that could destabilise the entire nation,” she said.
In what was interpreted as a sign that Mnangagwa is worried about the loyalty of the military, on Tuesday he demoted army chief Anselem Nhamo Sanyatwe to the less influential post of minister of sports, arts and culture.
It was the third major shake-up of the security apparatus after the removal of the police chief and head of intelligence ahead of the 2023 elections.
Sanyatwe’s transfer was to protect Mnangagwa, nicknamed “The Crocodile”, from a mutiny, said political analyst Eldred Masunungure.
“It’s part of the coup-proofing,” he said.
Addressing the divisions within the ruling party, Mnangagwa read the riot act at a ZANU-PF meeting this week.
“Let those barking continue barking while I am moving the country forward,” he said, describing his detractors as “rogue delusional elements”.
The government, meanwhile, has sought to present a united front. “There is absolutely no fight in the government,” spokesman Nick Mangwana told AFP on Wednesday.
‘Never about citizens’
Any faction pushing for a change of leadership might not find the same popular support as in 2017, when people poured onto the streets to celebrate Mugabe’s removal, warned human rights activist Abigale Mupambi.
“People are being very careful of being entangled in an agenda which has got nothing to do with their issues,” she said.
Mbanje agreed. “In the event of unconstitutional take of power, the military is to benefit. It has never been about the citizens,” he said.
“The military benefited in 2017 and are likely to benefit this time around,” he added.
