A coalition of exiled opposition Iranian groups and figures formed as protests challenged the authorities has collapsed, leaving diaspora representatives grasping for new ways to find long-sought unity.
Ever since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 ended the imperial rule of the last shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iranian exiles have been notorious for spending more time feuding between themselves than opposing the theocratic leadership in Tehran.
But the unprecedented protests that erupted last year, sparked by the September 16 death in custody of Mahsa Amini, who had been arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s Islamic dress code, created new momentum to help Iranians inside the country by creating a unified movement abroad.
In February this year, the shah’s son Reza Pahlavi joined with other figures who have often been at loggerheads to create the Alliance for Democracy and Freedom in Iran (ADFI), a coalition that then published a “Mahsa Charter”, a roadmap setting out a path for a transition to a secular democracy.
As well as the US-based Pahlavi, key members included Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi, campaigner Masih Alinejad, Iranian-Kurdish figure Abdullah Mohtadi of the Komala party and activist Hamed Esmaeilion, who lost his wife and daughter when Iran shot down a Ukrainian airliner in 2020.
But Esmaeilion, who had been instrumental in organising rallies in the West in support of the protests, announced barely a month after the group was formed that he was leaving it, denouncing “undemocratic methods” in a broadside aimed at Pahlavi.
Ebadi, Alinejad and Mohtadi followed suit, lamenting that the “situation has made it difficult to continue our solidarity”.
As the first anniversary of the watershed moment of Amini’s death looms, the hoped-for unity has now evaporated.
‘More fractious than regime’
Arash Azizi, senior lecturer at Clemson University, said Pahlavi had struggled to reconcile his nationalist supporters with the inclusion of centre-left figures such as Alinejad and Esmaeilion, not to mention the Kurdish Mohtadi.
“This speaks of a contradiction that Pahlavi has long faced: while he espouses a broad liberal and inclusive agenda himself, many in his base of supporters and figures close to him espouse aggressive chauvinistic politics,” Azizi, author of a forthcoming book on the protests, “What Iranians Want: Women, Life, Freedom”, told AFP.
The importance of such unity was underlined when both Pahlavi and Alinejad attended this year’s Munich security conference in February, showing the huge benefits of being able to speak with one voice.
But many in the diaspora have an intrinsic distrust of Pahlavi who, while insisting that he does not seek the restoration of the monarchy in Iran, has never distanced himself from his father’s authoritarian rule.
Always outside the coalition was the most organised of Iranian exiled opposition groups, the People’s Mujahedin (MEK) which is implacably opposed to Pahlavi but is regarded with disdain by many in the diaspora for siding with Baghdad in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war.
Meanwhile, there were immediate tensions within the coalition over questions of regional autonomy, with Pahlavi and his supporters deeply hostile to any suggestion of de-centralisation in favour of Iran’s non-Persian ethnic minorities such as the Kurds.
UK-based actor and campaigner Nazanin Boniadi, who was also a member of the original coalition, lamented that “old rifts –- left vs right, monarchist vs republican –- widened and deepened” after the coalition was formed.
“Ultimately, the opposition proved to be more fractious than the regime. As long as the regime is united, and we are divided, they will remain in power,” she wrote in an op-ed published by news site IranWire.
‘Sobering moment’
As September 16 approaches, Pahlavi has insisted he is committed to unity and called for new protests on that day. In a video message he called the date an “important opportunity” for Iranians from all walks of life to “unite and initiate a new wave of our national revolution”.
He also sought to strike a moderate tone in an interview with French journal Politique Internationale, saying his aim is to “unite the Iranian people around democratic and secular ideas” and rejecting any prospect of military intervention bringing about “regime change” in Iran.
Azizi said the collapse of the ADFI was a “sobering moment”, particularly as the authorities have sought to reassert their position by striking diplomatic deals on the international stage while ramping up pressure at home.
“But as the anniversary of Mahsa’s death approaches, it is likely that some diaspora figures will rethink possible pathways to unity against the regime, perhaps starting from massive demos likely to be held on the day,” he said.
