Israel Preparing For Possibility Of Syrian State Collapse

Israeli leaders and military officials are reportedly engaged in high level briefings over fast-moving events in Syria, which have seen Turkish-backed Islamists based in Idlib rapidly capture the major cities of Aleppo and Hama in less than a week.

Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi are carefully monitoring the situation across the border as the jihadists move south. "The IDF is following events and is preparing for any scenario in attack and defense,” the military said.

"The IDF will not allow a threat near the Syrian-Israeli border and will act to thwart any threat to the citizens of the State of Israel," it added. Of course, Israel has long directly contributed to destabilizing Syria through frequent airstrikes and at various times in past years supporting an anti-Assad insurgency.

There have been some unconfirmed reports that one option Israel would consider is creating a buffer zone inside southern Syria in the scenario of some kind of state collapse, and should Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) make it to Homs and eventually Damascus. Some analysts have accused Israel of covertly supporting HTS' ongoing rampage across the northern half of the country.

According to one Israeli report:

Channel 12 reports that Israel is preparing for the possibility that the Syrian army may collapse in the face of rapidly advancing rebel forces.

The report says Israel has been surprised by the weakness of the Syrian army, as it continues to swiftly lose ground to the jihadist-led fighters. The report adds that Israel has sent a strong warning to Iran not to send weaponry to Syria that could reach the hands of the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon.

And an unnamed US official has told Axios on Thurdsay at a moment the HTS insurgents are in control of the central city of Hama, "The Syrian military forces are not really fighting."

The official added, "We don't think the regime is in immediate danger, but this is the biggest challenge for the Assad regime in the last decade."

The last 12 hours have seen reports emerge of a Syrian Army counteroffensive around Hama, with some military bases on the outskirts having been taken back by national forces.

How did the security situation in the Aleppo area unravel so quickly? How or why did the Syrian Army retreat so rapidly?

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Below, a prominent and longtime Syrian commentator who goes by Bassem gives a quick bird's eye view explanation...

External:

1) Russia got distracted with the war in Ukraine and resources diverted there.

2) Hamas idiotically went on suicide mission in October 2023 and dragged Hizbollah into the conflict indirectly and exhausted them.

3) Israel weakened Iran in Syria past few years.

Internal:

4) Assad did nothing to improve the lives of locals. Electricity for few hours a day, not enough fuel for daily matters, corruption, made the lives of Syrian business community hell (customs, etc), to name few.

5) all the while opposition was rebuilding, changing their message, training, even Ukrainian intelligence came in to support them with intelligence and drone technology.

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We should add that US and European sanctions have devastated the Syrian economy and infrastructure, which have without doubt negatively impacted the Syrian Army's general readiness and morale. And the US military has been occupying Syria's oil and gas fields in the east for years at this point. Part of Washington's purpose has remained to squeeze Damascus of energy resources, further weakening the Syrian state.