With the US presidential election heading into the home stretch, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will likely be hoping for Donald Trump to return to the White House.
Trump’s last time in office was good for Netanyahu, and in the lead-up to the November 5 vote, the former president has sent mixed messages on his Middle East policy.
His remarks have ranged from encouraging Netanyahu to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities — which Israel refrained from in its strikes Saturday — to criticising the Israeli leader, saying “the October 7 attack would never have happened if I was president” and that he will pressure Israel to end the wars.
Yet it is these unclear policies, combined with Trump’s “make America great again” campaign slogan, that analysts say Netanyahu is hoping for.
An isolationist, Trump as a Republican president might give Netanyahu more freedom to navigate the conflicts that continue to rage in Gaza and Lebanon.
“One of Netanyahu’s milestones is the US election. He is praying for a Trump victory, which he thinks will give him a lot of freedom of movement, which will let him do what he aspires,” Gidon Rahat, political science professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told AFP.
Aviv Bushinsky, a political commentator and Netanyahu’s former chief of staff, similarly said: “His experience with Republicans is very good… unlike with the Democrats who are much tougher on him.”
Close personal relationship
In 17 years as prime minister, Netanyahu has only served opposite one Republican leader, Trump.
During his presidency, Trump went ahead with several moves that boosted Netanyahu’s domestic standing while upending some long-standing US policies on Israel, its conflict with the Palestinians and the wider region.
The Republican president moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, which Israel claims as its undivided capital, recognised Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, and oversaw the normalisation of ties between three Arab states and Israel.
Trump also withdrew from a landmark nuclear deal with Israel’s arch-foe Iran and reimposed tough economic sanctions on the Islamic republic.
President Joe Biden, meanwhile, has long had a frosty relationship with Netanyahu despite insisting on his “ironclad support” for Israel.
Unlike Trump, Biden had warned Netanyahu against striking Iran’s oil production and nuclear facilities.
Trump and Netanyahu also enjoy a close personal relationship, with the former US president boasting this week of having had frequent phone calls with the Israeli premier.
“We have a very good relationship,” Trump said at a rally in Georgia. “We’re going to work with them very closely.”
Those positives will outweigh any concerns, said Bushinsky.
“I think Netanyahu would be willing to take the risk of Trump’s unpredictability,” he said.
Popular in Israel
Trump is popular not just with Netanyahu but with the Israeli public.
An opinion poll conducted in September by Mitvim, the Israel Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, said 68 percent of Israelis see Trump as the candidate who will best serve Israel’s interests.
Only 14 percent chose Vice President Kamala Harris, despite her repeatedly declaring her support for Israel and its right to defend itself.
“In Israel, more than any other liberal democracy outside the United States, Trump is more popular than Harris,” said Nadav Tamir, a former Israeli diplomat to the United States and a member of Mitvim’s board of directors.
A new Trump administration, though, could come with surprises, according to Tamir.
The former president has increasingly surrounded himself with Republicans “who are isolationists and don’t want America to be the leader of the free world or international alliances”, he said.
– ‘Distrust’ –
Among Palestinians there is little enthusiasm for either candidate, said Khalil Shikaki, a Palestinian political scientist and pollster.
“Palestinians distrust both candidates and see little difference between them,” he said.
Taher al-Nunu, a Hamas official, told AFP that he believed “successive US administrations have always been biased” towards Israel.
On the street, Palestinians said no matter who wins, life in their territories will not improve.
“I do not believe that the American elections will have a positive impact on our political reality,” said Leen Bassem, a 21-year-old student at Birzeit University in the occupied West Bank.
Hassan Anwar, 42, a sound engineer, also said he did not believe there was any difference, “because American policy is completely clear in its support and backing of Israel”.
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