March 14 (UPI) — The presidential ticket for Republicans and Democrats is set in near-record time for the 2024 election. The abbreviated primary and long wait for Election Day may not be to the benefit of voters, some experts say.
Many less engaged voters are still far from thinking about the general election, while some of those who are tuned in will get turned off by the attack ads to come. Along the way, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tasked with casting a positive light on their policies and personalities.
“A lot of it probably fades into the background. Some of the worries in a really long campaign are burnout and inattentiveness,” Jacob Neiheisel, associate professor of political science at the University of Buffalo, told UPI. “Getting your message out there usually only matters if people are paying attention.”
Neiheisel says the average voter begins paying closer attention within 100 days of the election and often within the final two weeks.
There are more than 230 days to go before Nov. 5. Biden has won the requisite delegates to be the nominee for the Democratic Party, as Trump has for Republicans. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s withdrawal from the race leaves Trump unchallenged at one of the earliest points in the nominating process in the past 50 years.
Democrat John Kerry clinched the 2004 nomination with 244 days to go, same as Trump. Republican John McCain did the same, though one day quicker, in 2008. Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were still vying for the nomination on that side of the ticket.
A third-party option could still emerge for 2024.
But meanwhile, the rematch between Biden and Trump sets the stage for a return to, or a continuance of, negative campaigning. The effect of a drawn-out back-and-forth of attack ads and jabs on the campaign trail can drive some voters away, Ronald Schurin, political science professor at the University of Connecticut, told UPI.
“The average voter now has this antipathy toward politics and will view the next several months of intense negative campaigning by both sides as something that will be a turnoff,” Schurin said. “They will take everything with a large grain of salt, saying ‘it’s all presidential politics.'”
Schurin adds that this can have the effect of losing important discussions about policy in the mix. For instance, Biden and Trump have vastly different plans for aiding Ukraine’s defense against Russia. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban claimed after meeting with Trump last week that the former president would cut off aid to Ukraine.
Biden has continually supported giving aid, including military equipment, to Ukraine.
“Right now, some people will look at the issue as an issue between Trump and Biden and not as its own issue,” Schurin said.
Biden and Trump have focused on discussing each other even before Haley suspended her campaign. Trump has long chided Biden as “weak” and “crooked,” alleging that the 91 criminal charges he has faced are aimed at weakening Biden’s political opponent.
Whether Biden refers to Trump by name or not, the former president is a key feature in many of his public addresses. “MAGA Republicans,” those loyal to Trump, are often described as a threat to democracy. Biden’s State of the Union address last week featured more than a dozen references to Trump without uttering his name.
Some Republicans in Congress have steered the public conversation away from policy and toward Biden the person. A hearing on Tuesday focused largely on Biden’s age, 81, and memory, a frequent target of critics. Trump has also seized on the topic, though he is 77.
Thomas Patterson, professor of government and the press at the Harvard Kennedy School, told UPI that the emphasis on these issues over real policy solutions is one of his concerns about the long campaign process.
“Up to this point, it’s disappointing the focus has been on Biden’s age as a liability,” Patterson said. “The connecting tissue is the media. I’m as much interested to see how the media works through the campaigns.”
Patterson added that he is also interested in how Trump’s many court cases are discussed in the public sphere.
If the rematch between Biden and Trump feels unique, that is because in many ways it is. There has not been a presidential election rematch since 1956, and only once has the election featured two candidates who had both served a term as president.
This happened when Grover Cleveland sought and won a nonconsecutive term after beating President Benjamin Harrison in the 1892 election. Harrison unseated Cleveland four years earlier.
“Both candidates are well known. In a sense we have incumbents on both sides running,” John Geer, political science professor at Vanderbilt University and co-director of Vanderbilt Poll, told UPI. “Usually we have one side that is much more open and takes some time to settle.”
There is still a lot for Biden and Trump to do before Election Day.
In the more than seven months before the election, the candidates will work to solidify their support within their respective parties and attempt to reach out to undecided and independent voters.
“The presidential race is a marathon, not a sprint,” Meena Bose, dean of Hofstra’s public policy program and director of presidential studies, told UPI. “Motivating turnout will be key. It is a building process. Between now and the party conventions — a lot of focus will be on party building and outreach to be done to kind of start turning people’s attention to the election.”
One major piece of business that remains is Trump’s choice of running mate. Neiheisel said that announcement will likely be held onto for an opportune moment.
“Campaigns try to time announcements like that, things that are in their control, when they need a boost or to control the news cycle,” Neiheisel said. “We saw this with Biden and the State of the Union. It was timed after Super Tuesday. That wasn’t a coincidence.”
