Asian markets mostly rose Wednesday as traders tracked another record day on Wall Street ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, while the yen further weakened a day after Japan’s rare interest rate hike.
US monetary policymakers are widely expected to hold borrowing costs at a two-decade high, but traders will also be watching the “dot plot” of projections for how many cuts they see this year.
At the turn of 2024, markets had factored in up to six cuts, but a spate of strong data — particularly pointing to sticky inflation — has forced investors to revise that down to three.
That is in line with the Fed’s December projection, but there are worries policymakers could be spooked into lowering their outlook to just two — or 50 basis points.
Some market participants are also concerned that the first reduction — anticipated by many to come in June — could be pushed back.
“It would only take two participants to move their dots to move the median to 50 basis points of cuts for this year,” warned Citigroup’s Veronica Clark.
“We are thinking the Fed is OK with where they are now. But it is definitely the risk.”
Still, Wall Street investors remained upbeat, pushing all three main indexes higher on the back of a tech rally, with the S&P 500 chalking up another record.
“Since the start of this year, expectations about 2024 central bank easing have been pared back materially,” JP Morgan economists wrote in a recent investor note.
“But that has not disrupted the general trend toward an easing in global financial conditions.”
Asian dealers were a little less enthusiastic in the early exchanges but grew more optimistic as the day wore on.
Hong Kong, Shanghai, Mumbai, Seoul, Singapore, Wellington and Manila rose, but there were losses in Sydney, Taipei, Jakarta and Bangkok.
Tokyo was closed for a holiday.
London dipped at the open even as data showed UK inflation fell more than expected last month.
Paris also dipped and Frankfurt was flat.
The yen weakened further after the Bank of Japan suggested that Tuesday’s interest rate hike — its first in 17 years — would not likely be followed by any more any time soon.
The unit fell to around 164.7 per euro — its lowest since 2008 — with the difference between the BoJ and European Central Bank’s rates still too wide.
It was also at more than 151.5 per dollar, with analysts saying officials would be keeping an eye on the markets ready to support the unit.
The move marked the end of the BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy, which was an outlier as other central banks ramped up rates to combat surging inflation.
Speculation that the Fed could revise down its own rate cut projections was also putting pressure on the Japanese currency.
“Looking ahead, the Bank will likely keep its policy stance accommodative in the near term, unless it sees risks of significant upward pressure on underlying inflation,” said Duncan Wrigley and Kelvin Lam at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Key figures around 0810 GMT
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.1 percent at 16,543.07 (close)
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.6 percent at 3,079.69 (close)
London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 7,731.17
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for holiday
Dollar/yen: UP at 151.51 yen from 150.88 yen on Tuesday
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0864 from $1.0867
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2713 from $1.2721
Euro/pound: UP at 85.47 pence from 85.40 pence
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.4 percent at $82.37 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.4 percent at $87.03 per barrel
New York – Dow: UP 0.8 percent at 39,110.76 (close)
