Elon Musk has once again urged negotiated settlement to end the Ukraine war while warning Ukraine that seeking to keep up and expand the fight will inevitably lead to the loss of Odessa and thus Kiev's access to the Black Sea.
The Tesla and SpaceX CEO underscored that Ukraine's position continues to weaken even as its leadership refuses negotiations while pressing the West for more weapons. "Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question," he stressed in his commentary posted on X.
Musk was responding in agreement with David Sacks who heavily criticized prominent pundit John Spencer of the Modern War Institute at West Point. Sacks blasted Spencer for his analysis based in "neocon fairy tales about Russian weakness, and puffed up Ukraine’s chances." Sacks also noted Spencer was "a cheerleader for the disastrous summer counteroffensive."
Musk reflected of the failed counteroffensive in the thread, "It was a tragic waste of life for Ukraine to attack a larger army that had defense in depth, minefields and stronger artillery when Ukraine lacked armor or air superiority! Any fool could have predicted that."
Musk continued: "My recommendation a year ago was for Ukraine to entrench and apply all resources to defense. Even then, it is tough to hold land that doesn’t have strong natural barriers."
"There is no chance of Russia taking all of Ukraine, as the local resistance would be extreme in the west, but Russia will certainly gain more land than they have today."
"The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too," Musk wrote.
And that's when he concluded, "Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens."
Musk has been no stranger to controversy and catching flak from the mainstream media over his Ukraine-related commentary. Kiev officials themselves have at times accused the South African-born entrepreneur and billionaire of supposed 'sympathies' with the Kremlin; however, Musk is among those commentators who take a fiercely independent and realist approach to examining the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
Musk has frequently defended his record - for example in February lashing out at critics during a Twitter Spaces discussion with Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI): "My companies have probably done more to undermine Russia than anyone. Space X has taken away two-thirds of the Russian launch business. Starlink has overwhelmingly helped Ukraine," he said at the time.
Johnson had during the debate underscored that "We all have to understand that Vladimir Putin will not lose this war... Losing to Vladimir Putin is existential to Vladimir Putin. Russia has four times the population and a much larger industrial base."
