An opinion poll published on Friday showed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party would win the largest number seats in the parliament if an election were held now.
The poll, published in the Hebrew language Maariv newspaper, showed Likud winning 24 Knesset seats, against the 32 the party now holds. The National Unity Party led by former general Benny Gantz would receive 21 seats.
Though Likud would win the most seats, Netanyahu’s ruling coalition, which includes nationalist-religious and ultra-Orthodox parties, would lose any election held now, with 53 seats in the 120-seat parliament. The main opposition bloc would win 58-seats, according to the poll.
Earlier opinion polls taken after the start of the war in Gaza regularly showed Likud gaining only 16 to18 seats.
Netanyahu and Likud’s popularity fell drastically, as many Israeli voters blamed the Prime Minister for the alleged security failures of the military and intelligence apparatus on 7 October.
Members of Hamas’ armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, breached the Gaza border fence to attack Israeli settlements and military bases imposing a siege on the strip. Qassam and other Palestinian fighters were able to take 240 captives back to Gaza.
Some 1,200 Israelis were killed during the operation. Some were killed by Hamas fighters, while many were killed by Israeli attack helicopters, tanks, and drones, per the controversial Hannibal Directive.
Netanyahu and his coalition partners, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, have refused to agree to a ceasefire deal with Hamas that would return the Israelis who are still captive in Gaza, preferring instead to continue the war that has killed a reported more than 40,000 Palestinians and destroy large swathes of the strip.
Netanyahu, Smotrich, and Ben Gvir established their ruling coalition following elections in late 2022. Israel’s next parliamentary election is not due until 2026.
The survey also showed Netanyahu's personal popularity is improving. Israelis responding to the poll said they preferred Netanyahu over any alternative potential candidate apart from former prime minister Naftali Bennett, who has retired from public life.
In contrast to Likud, Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party and Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party have fallen in popularity since October 7. Both parties therefore have an incentive not to leave the government and call for early elections, Reuters reported.
