Jan. 22 (UPI) — Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are the final two Republican presidential candidates going into New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday.
The Republican field opened with more than a dozen candidates. With Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis suspending his campaign on Sunday, there are many questions about what happens next.
Among those questions is who will garner the lion’s share of DeSantis’ supporters and can former U.N. ambassador Haley perform well enough in New Hampshire and South Carolina to challenge the former president?
J. Edwin Benton, politics professor at the University of South Florida and author of Government and Politics in Florida (fourth edition), splits his time between Florida and Haley’s home state. He told UPI he has kept the pulse of politics in both states throughout his more than 40-year career.
“I cannot recall a situation analogous to what we have where it’s down to a two-party race so early,” Benton said.
DeSantis quickly endorsed Trump, who is embroiled in multiple court cases including criminal cases related to election interference and improper retention of classified documents. But that endorsement may not be indicative of how his supporters will vote, according to Benton.
“There’s too much presumptive thinking with regard to how much impact that endorsement makes,” he said. “Even in DeSantis’ backyard it’s not much of an endorsement.”
Benton adds that Haley does not need to win New Hampshire or South Carolina to remain in the race, but she cannot afford to lose by a wide margin.
“If she gets blown out in any state, especially South Carolina, she has to strongly consider folding the tents and dropping out of the race,” Benton said. “She has to at least be competitive — within 5 to 10%.”
Many conclusions have been drawn about the Republican race being a done deal following Trump’s historically large margin of victory in the Iowa caucus last week. The former president carried 56,260 votes, more than 51% of votes cast.
Haley won Johnson County, home of the University of Iowa campus, by one vote. It is the only county Trump did not win.
However it was a relatively low turnout with 110,298 votes cast in the Hawkeye State. The 56,260 votes received by Trump represents about 8% of registered Iowa Republicans.
“That several hundred thousand voters in Iowa, they may not be represented of Republicans across the country,” Benton said. “Right now we’re looking at things with a tight focus. The Republican primary is of people who identify as Republicans. The wildcard is the independent voters.”
There are about 300,000 registered Republican voters and more than 399,000 independent voters in New Hampshire. According to a recent survey by Gallup, about 43% of voters identify as independent compared to an event 27% for both Republicans and Democrats.
