A top Norwegian official warned that Ukraine was facing multiple challenges and Russia was getting stronger. The bleak assessment was made as the US and Europe look to commit over $100 billion to the Ukrainian war effort. On the battlefield, Kiev is facing a shortage of soldiers and arms.
The head of Norway’s military intelligence unit, Nils Andreas Stensones, said, "In this war, Russia is currently in a stronger position than it was a year ago and is in the process of gaining the advantage." He added that Russia "could mobilize around three times more troops than Ukraine."
Nearly two years ago, Washington and its NATO partners agreed to back Ukraine in a proxy war to weaken Russia. However, it is Ukraine that is now on the brink of defeat. Kiev has depleted its weapon stockpiles, including 155 mm artillery rounds and air defense interceptors.
Future arms delivered to Ukraine are in question as a $61 billion war funding package for Kiev remains stalled in Congres. Even if the House passed the bill finding the war in Ukraine, Kiev faces other challenges.
In addition to the $61 billion the White House is pushing Congress to allocate to the war in Ukraine, the European Union recently agreed to a $50 billion economic aid package for Kiev. Still, Stensones warned, Ukraine will need a significant influx of aid to regain the upper hand on the battlefield:
"Extensive Western weapons aid would be needed for Ukrainian forces to be able to defend themselves and regain the initiative in the conflict."
Weapons production delays continue in the West. Currently, orders placed for 155 mm shells take one to two years to be delivered. Adding to Kiev’s problems is a severe troops shortage. President Zelensky appears unable to address the manpower shortage as Ukrainians are beginning to protest future conscription programs.
Stensones explained that Russia does not face the same challenges, even in the face of a Western economic war. "Moscow is tackling sanctions better than expected," he said. Moscow’s industry can now produce enough munitions, combat vehicles, drones, and missiles to enable its troops to "maintain their war effort all year."
Denmark’s Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen made a similar statement last week. "Russia’s capacity to produce military equipment has increased tremendously," he explained.
