Inflation persistence has eased only slightly after surging higher at the start of the year, according to a gauge from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
A New York Fed model that aims to measure how much inflation is likely to keep going was revised higher for the first three months of the year, data from the bank showed Monday. The most recent reading shows only a slight decline in April, the most recent month measured.
The persistent barometer, known as the Multivariate Core Trend or MCT, jumped to 3.3 percent in January, upwardly revised from the earlier estimate of three percent. February’s figure was revised up to 3.1 percent from 2.7 percent and March’s to 2.9 percent from 2.6 percent.
The estimate for April is 2.8 percent. Importantly, that’s higher than the original estimates for the prior two months, indicating that inflation is proving much more stubborn than previously thought.
Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation in April was 2.8 percent, matching the persistent inflation measure. That suggests that transitory factors are no longer pushing up inflation. As a result, further declines in inflation may be more difficult to achieve.
The core measure has been unchanged at 2.8 percent year-over-year since Februar after ticking down from 2.9 percent in January.
