Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 2.6% probability of slamming into Earth, up from 1% last month
Capsule with asteroid samples arrives in Utah
FOX News correspondent Jonathan Serrie reports on the arrival in Utah of a capsule carrying asteroid samples on ‘Special Report.’
The chances of an asteroid as large as the width of an NFL field striking Earth continue to tick up, according to NASA.
The recently discovered Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 2.6% probability of impact, or 1 in 38 chance. That’s up from a 1.9% probability following and an initial 1% chance in late January. On the flip side, this means that there is a more than 97% chance the asteroid will whiz past Earth.
The celestial body is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide and is expected to swing close to Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. The width of an NFL field from sideline to sideline is 160 feet.
The chances of an asteroid as large as the width of an NFL field striking Earth continue to tick up, according to NASA. The recently discovered Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 2.6% probability of impact, or 1 in 38 chance. The above image is an illustration. (iStock)
The odds of a strike will almost certainly continue to go up and down as the asteroid’s path around the sun is better understood, and astronomers said there’s a good chance the risk may drop to zero.
NASA and the European Space Agency’s Webb Space Telescope will observe this near-Earth asteroid in March before the object disappears from view. Once that happens, scientists will have to wait until 2028 when it passes our way again.
In the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 is on an impact trajectory, NASA said the impact would occur somewhere along a risk corridor which extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. NASA said that if it were to slam into Earth, it would impact at a high velocity, roughly at around 38,000 miles per hour.
The asteroid has been given a Level 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a system used to measure the potential dangers posed by near-Earth objects.
This image made available by University of Hawaii's asteroid impact alert system, shows Asteroid 2024 YR4 on Dec. 27, 2024. (ATLAS / University of Hawaii / NASA via AP)
At Level 3, the scale suggests: "A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away."
The alert level is the second-highest recorded since 2004 when the asteroid Apophis reached Level 4, but additional observations later determined that its trajectory would cause it to pass Earth at a safe distance of around 20,000 miles in 2029.
However, experts say it’s way too soon to fret over this asteroid.
Orbit of 2024 YR4 with positions as of Jan. 31, 2025. (NASA)
"No one should be concerned that the impact probability is rising. This is the behavior our team expected," Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, told the Associated Press. "To be clear, we expect the impact probability to drop to zero at some point."
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first reported to the Minor Planet Center, an international clearing house for small body positional measurements, by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile on Dec. 27. ATLAS comprises several telescopes around the world and is managed by the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy.
Fox Weather and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Michael Dorgan is a writer for Fox News Digital and Fox Business.
You can send tips to
