The Pentagon’s annual Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China report, released on Wednesday, found that China is making progress toward its goal of military modernization despite persistent corruption problems.
The report warned China has almost tripled its nuclear arsenal since 2020.
According to the Pentagon, China now has over 600 operational nuclear warheads. The official U.S. estimate in 2020 was in the “low 200s.”
China’s nuclear arsenal remains far smaller than those of the United States and Russia, which have over 5,500 warheads each. The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimated 5,580 warheads for Russia and 5,044 for the U.S. in 2024. Together, the two nuclear superpowers control about 88 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons.
China is now in third place, and the Pentagon’s latest estimate for China was at least 100 warheads higher than what the FAS came up with.
The Pentagon report credited the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with rapidly modernizing its non-nuclear forces, in addition to managing the fastest nuclear buildup since the Cold War.
“The PRC seeks to amass national power to achieve what Xi Jinping has referred to as the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049 and to revise the international order in support of the PRC system of governments and its national interests,” a senior U.S. defense official told reporters as the annual China report was rolled out.
“When you look at what they’re trying to build here, it’s a diversified nuclear force that would be comprised of systems ranging from low-yield precision strike missiles all the way up to ICBMs, with different options at basically every rung on the escalation ladder, which is a lot different than what they’ve relied on traditionally,” the official said.
The official said China’s modernization plan includes improved conventional intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that could strike targets in the continental United States with non-nuclear payloads. The psychological value of this strike capability far exceeds its potential to inflict kinetic damage.
“This is in part to address what they’ve seen as a long-standing asymmetry in the U.S.’s ability to conduct conventional strikes against the PRC, and for many decades, their inability to reach out and strike the U.S. territory with anything other than nuclear and ballistic missiles,” the official said.
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia Michael Chase said China’s nuclear arsenal is far more sophisticated than it was four years ago, in addition to being much larger.
“They’ve expanded to a nuclear triad, with the PLA Navy having ballistic missile submarines, conducting deterrence patrols, as we cover in the report, and that the PLA Air Force has also regained a nuclear deterrence and strike mission with the addition of nuclear-capable bombers,” Chase said.
China’s rapid military buildup was all the more impressive given ongoing problems with corruption in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). High-ranking PLA officials have been swept up in political and anti-corruption purges, including Defense Minister Li Shangfu in October 2023.
U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) analysts said that corruption is getting worse in every branch of the Chinese military, despite its clear progress in developing more advanced capabilities, and dictator Xi Jinping’s constant vows to root out corrupt military officials.
One theory for this phenomenon is that China’s modernization push involved billions of dollars flowing into construction, research, and military acquisitions, which are highly vulnerable to graft and influence peddling.
Furthermore, the PLA is keen on developing its ability to project power far beyond China’s borders, an area where it has long been seen as deficient, and this means more money flowing to projects beyond the scrutiny of Xi and his loyalists in Beijing.
In addition to corruption, the Pentagon cited the lack of combat experience among PLA officers as a problem for China’s military ambitions.
The PLA itself is well aware of this problem, having established a system of “Five Incapables” to rate the deficiencies of its commanders: inability to evaluate situations, difficulty understanding the intent of superior officers, difficulty with making operational decisions, struggles to deploy forces properly, and slow responses to unexpected developments.
Chase said the PLA is evidently trying to absorb some experience from its Russian allies, although China tends to value “political signaling” over effective training during joint military exercises, and the Russians seem reluctant to teach their Chinese partners everything they know.
The Pentagon criticized China for supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, and for supporting the other pillar of the axis of tyranny, Iran, as it makes proxy war against Israel and seeks to destabilize the Middle East.
Chase was especially critical of China for supporting the Houthi insurgents in Yemen, who have inflicted enormous damage on the world’s economy by attacking ships in the Red Sea. The Houthis have openly stated that only their patrons in China, Russia, and Iran can expect to transit safely through one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes.
“The Houthis have built a supply chain into the PRC for drones and missiles that they are using to attack international shipping. These are not just one-off transactions. This is really systemic in terms of how the Houthis are acquiring the capabilities they need,” Chase said.
