The Gallup polling organization released the results of a survey Tuesday that found 52 percent of Ukrainians want the war to end as quickly as possible, versus 38 percent who felt their country should keep fighting until it achieves victory, no matter how long it takes.
Gallup said the attitude among Ukrainians has shifted “decisively” since the early days of the Russian invasion, which began in February 2022:
Surveyed in the months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Ukrainians were defiant, with 73% preferring fighting until victory.
In 2023, support for fighting until victory slipped, but more than twice as many Ukrainians favored a continued fight (63%) over a negotiated peace (27%). Fatigue has intensified this year, with support for negotiated peace rising to 52%, the first time it has reached a majority.
Even in the early days of the conflict, support for the war was lowest among Ukrainians who lived in the eastern and southern conflict zones. Support was about ten percent lower in these areas even in the first months of the invasion.
Gallup said support has “dipped below 50% everywhere” over the past year. Interestingly, one of the biggest drops in support – a full 39 points – came from the capital, Kyiv, which is far from the front lines.
As for how Ukrainians envision the war ending, more than half of those who favored a quick conclusion thought Ukraine would have to make “territorial concessions” to Russia.
Gallup did not press them to elaborate on precisely which territories they were willing to concede, but it seems unlikely Moscow would settle for anything less than Donetsk and Luhansk, the ersatz “independent republics” unilaterally declared by President Vladimir Putin at the beginning of the invasion.
The Kremlin hinted on Wednesday that it might be willing to negotiate with President-elect Donald Trump if Donetsk and Luhansk, and perhaps some more eastern territory Russia currently occupies, are on the table.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has vehemently rejected the exchange of Ukrainian territory or sovereignty for peace. His five-point “victory plan” calls for the complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian soil, plus a strong security commitment from NATO to ensure Russia can never invade again.
Russia rejected Zelensky’s plan out of hand and told him to “wake up.” Polls other than Gallup’s have found growing support among the Ukrainian people for ceding some territory to end the war and preserve the rest of their nation’s sovereignty.
Some Ukrainians may have concluded that keeping the eastern provinces is more trouble than it is worth, since Ukrainian forces have been fighting separatists there for a decade. Others may have seen the tide of the war shifting enough to make an offensive that would completely expel the Russians appear impossible.
Gallup noted that two years ago, over 90 percent of Ukrainians thought “victory” in the war would include evicting the Russians and regaining control of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, but today only 81 percent set such high standards for victory.
Gallup found that Ukrainians generally preferred the European Union and United Kingdom to take a leading role in peace negotiations, rather than the United States, regardless of which candidate won the 2024 election.
