Silver's nuanced election forecast model shows Trump gaining momentum in national polling
Dem strategist Nicole Brener-Schmitz reveals hard truth on latest polling data: ‘It’s tied’
Republican Strategist for Axiom Strategies Erin Perrine and Democratic strategist Nicole Brener-Schmitz weigh in on the neck-and-neck presidential election between Trump and Harris.
Prominent elections analyst and statistician Nate Silver said former President Trump appears to be gaining momentum in the run-up to the election, calling the latest data "pretty negative" for Vice President Kamala Harris in an update to his latest forecast on Sunday.
"The data continues to be pretty negative for Kamala Harris," Silver wrote on his Substack. "There are now three recent high-quality national polls that show Donald Trump leading — a difficult circumstance for Harris, given Democrats’ Electoral College disadvantage— and her edge in our national polling average is down to 1.7 points. National polls don't influence the model that much, and the race remains basically a toss-up, but it’s not hard to think of reasons that Trump could win."
Silver referenced a recent Fox News Poll, which shows Trump ahead of Harris in the presidential contest 50%-48%, marking a reversal from last month when Harris had a narrow advantage. The TIPP tracking poll, also cited by Silver, shows Trump overtaking Harris by a two-point lead, 49% to 47%.
FOX NEWS POLL: TRUMP AHEAD OF HARRIS BY TWO POINTS NATIONALLY
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks as he visits a campaign office, Friday, Oct. 18, 2024, in Hamtranck, Mich. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Silver's nuanced election forecast model still shows Harris with a narrow lead nationally, with the vice president at 48.9% and Trump at 47.2%, as of Sunday afternoon. But Trump, who last Sunday was ranked 46.5% in Silver's model, appears to be gaining ground.
"Starting to see some Trump leads in high-quality national polls, which is certainly not a great sign for Harris. Very close race, though," Silver wrote on X.
Today's numbers. Starting to see some Trump leads in high-quality national polls, which is certainly not a great sign for Harris. Very close race, though.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa pic.twitter.com/5jSuJZ6AWV
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 20, 2024
FOX NEWS POLL: TRUMP TAKES NATIONAL LEAD, HARRIS LEADS BATTLEGROUND STATES
The data guru, who revealed his plans to vote for Harris last month, expressed a similar sentiment in his newsletter Sunday morning, which he titled "24 reasons that Trump could win."
"Harris is the favorite to win the popular vote, but the Electoral College bias favors Republicans by 2 percentage points. In an era of intense partisanship and close elections, this is inherently difficult for Democrats to overcome," he listed as number one.
Democratic presidential candidate US Vice President Kamala Harris speaks about the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during a statement to the press at the University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on October 17, 2024. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images) (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)
Other explanations on his list include inflation, higher prices under the Biden administration, immigration, diminishing trust in the media, and Harris' past record on policy.
POLLING GURU NATE SILVER REVEALS HE'S VOTING FOR KAMALA HARRIS
"The cultural vibes are shifting to the right and the left continues to pay a price for the excesses of 2020 on COVID, crime, "wokeness," and other issues," he lists as another potential factor.
Silver continued, "Harris ran far to her left in 2019, adopting many unpopular positions, and doesn't really have a viable strategy for explaining her changing stances."
"Harris has been running on vibes and has failed to articulate a clear vision for the country. It might have been a good strategy if the "fundamentals" favored her, but they don’t."
Political analyst Mark Halperin says that both Trump fans and Democratic voters studying polling data have told him that Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump's chances of winning the presidency are growing. (Photo by Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images)
The latest Fox News polling shows Harris ahead by 6 points among voters from the seven key battleground states (within the margin of error for that subsample), and the candidates are tied at 49% each among voters in close counties (where the Biden-Trump 2020 margin was less than 10 points). Trump’s advantage comes from a larger share in counties he won by more than 10 points in 2020 (64%-35%) than Harris has in counties Biden won by more than 10 points (58%-39%).
That raises the question of whether Democrats could win the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote. In 2000 and 2016, it was the GOP candidate who lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College.
Fox News' Dana Blanton contributed to this report.
Yael Halon is a reporter for Fox News Digital. Story tips can be sent to
