As we look ahead to 2025, there is no shortage of expert forecasts and predictions for what will happen to the world’s economy, markets, geopolitics, and technology in 2025.
In this now sixth year of Visual Capitalist's Prediction Consensus (part of our comprehensive 2025 Global Forecast Series presented by Inigo Insurance), Kayla Zhu has summarized the most common predictions and forecasts by experts into a single visual of what they expect to happen in 2025.
Drawing from our predictions database of over 800 forecasts compiled from reports, interviews, podcasts, and more, the Prediction Consensus “bingo card” and this article offer an overview of the most cited trends and opportunities that experts are watching for the rest of the year.
Geopolitical Predictions for 2025
Increased geopolitical uncertainty and volatility is top of mind for many forecasters heading into 2025, as global trade dynamics restructure around tariffs and potential counter-tariffs.
For many forecasters, President Donald Trump’s return to office is anticipated to escalate U.S.-China tensions, potentially triggering increased economic competition, protectionist policies, and global fragmentation.
“For now, America’s rivalry with China will manifest itself as a trade war, as Mr Trump imposes restrictions and ramps up tariffs—including on America’s allies”
– Tom Standage, The Economist
The geopolitical landscape is likely to become more volatile as both nations navigate a complex and increasingly adversarial relationship, with the U.S. intensifying its protectionist stance under Trump while China looks to strengthening its BRICS partnerships.
Amid U.S.-China tensions, experts expect the geopolitical landscape to remain fraught as Sudan endures one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, marked by famine and mass displacement with limited aid while Syria faces a precarious transition following the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
However, some conflicts are predicted to wrap up this year, with a number of experts optimistic that 2025 could mark the end of the Russia-Ukraine war as it nears its third anniversary. Another significant conflict saw a breakthrough as Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza ceasefire in January 2025, offering a brief respite after 15 months of hostilities.
Along with these ongoing geopolitical issues, several major elections are on the horizon for 2025, including Canada, Germany, Belarus, the Philippines, and Australia.
Economy and Markets Forecasts for 2025
Based on the hundreds of economic forecasts and predictions we’ve sifted through, many analysts and experts share matching views on what’s ahead for inflation, interest rates, and economic growth in 2025.
Global inflation forecasts for 2025: Inflation is expected to continue easing in 2025 across many economies, with global inflation expected to drop from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025. However, some experts predict tariffs could drive acute inflation as firms pass additional costs onto consumers.
Interest rate forecasts for 2025: Further interest rate cuts are projected for the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in 2025, while the Bank of Japan was expected to bump rates by 25 bps this year, and has already followed through with their rate hike to 0.50%–a level not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Global markets forecasts for 2025: Forecasters are quite bullish on the markets, with positive S&P 500 forecasts in the 10% to 20% range and an expected broadening of returns beyond the Magnificent 7 expected for 2025. Consensus expectations see U.S. equities leading earnings while Europe rebounds and Asia softens.
Gold prices are expected to continue to surge this year, with experts positioning it as both an effective hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties and a general portfolio diversifier. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are also expected to see growth as the Trump administration advances pro-crypto policies and global economies develop more structured regulatory frameworks for digital assets.
Global real GDP growth forecasts for 2025: The outlook for global growth continues to be fairly stable heading into 2025. Global GDP growth forecasts range from 2.7% to 3.2%, squarely in the range of IMF’s 10-year average (2015-2024) of 3.1%.
“With some shocks set to ease, such as Russia-Ukraine, along with a bonfire of regulations and tax cuts in the U.S. economy, the global economy is likely to perform better than last year.”
– Mo Tanweer, academic associate Pembroke College, University of Cambridge and consultant to Inigo Insurance
The U.S. and China are both expected to experience slower growth in 2025, with the IMF projecting U.S. GDP growth at 2.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from 2024, and China’s at 4.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from last year.
Technology and AI Predictions for 2025
Advancements in artificial intelligence innovation and infrastructure show no sign of slowing down in 2025.
Just this January, President Trump announced the Stargate Project, a $500 billion AI infrastructure venture led by OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, and MGX, aimed at building data centers across the United States to secure American leadership in AI technology, with an initial $100 billion deployment starting in Texas.
Significant strides in AI are in the works this year, including agentic AI systems and artificial general intelligence (AGI) which OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei have all stated are well-within possibility in the near future, possibly this year.
However, as companies scale up their AI operations, both capital expenditures and energy costs are projected to rise, highlighting the need for improvements in energy efficiency and renewable sources in shaping AI’s future and aligning it with environmental objectives.
Robotics and autonomous driving technology are also expected to continue to advance as AI systems become more sophisticated, with experts forecasting autonomous driving to become “safe and reliable” by 2025 and relatively mainstream across major cities in the United States.
2025 Forecasts: The Year of Recalibration
As we head into 2025, notable shifts are taking shape across geopolitical, economic, and technological landscapes. The year stands out as a pivotal moment of global recalibration—where established systems are being challenged, reimagined, and restructured.
Trump’s return to the White House is expected to dramatically reshape U.S. foreign and economic policy, with a particular focus on trade measures and protectionist strategies.
His administration’s approach is likely to test international relationships, potentially accelerating economic competition and global fragmentation while simultaneously pursuing domestic market stimulation and supportive policies for emerging technologies like AI and digital assets.
However, as a whole the world is carefully rebalancing economically. Inflation is gradually cooling, markets show optimism, and central banks are strategically adjusting interest rates. The global economic engine is humming at a steady, if not spectacular, pace, with GDP growth remaining stable despite slowing projections for major economies like the U.S. and China.
Perhaps most notably, technology—and particularly artificial intelligence—emerges as a transformative and disruptive force. Massive investments in AI infrastructure and predictions about artificial general intelligence signal a technological watershed, but are also being challenged by efficiency and cost innovations made apparent by China’s open source Deepseek R1 model release.
From geopolitical tensions to technological innovations, the year promises to be a period of strategic adaptation, where countries, markets, and technologies reassess and realign themselves to address the complex challenges of our interconnected world.
