President Vladimir Putin in his lengthy interview released Thursday with journalist Tucker Carlson clearly wanted to deliver a firm message of defiance to the West. At one point he stressed that Kiev's Western supporters must understand it is "impossible" to defeat Russia in Ukraine.
"Up until now, there has been the uproar and screaming about inflicting a strategic defeat to Russia on the battlefield. But now they are apparently coming to realize that it is difficult to achieve, if possible, at all. In my opinion, it is impossible by definition," he said according to the transcript.
The war is days away from reaching its exact two year-mark, on Feb.22, and though frontlines have been largely stalemated while Russia has solidified its hold over much of the east and parts of the south, the ferocity of the war hasn't lessened, given it has moved to a new and perhaps more dangerous cross-border phase.
Ukraine has not only taken responsibility for several attacks on Russian oil refineries and key installations of late, but its cross-border attacks deep into Russian territory are coming almost daily at this point. Russia's defense ministry said Friday its forces shot down 19 Ukrainian drones over four different regions and the Black Sea overnight
"An attempt by the Kyiv regime to commit a terrorist attack with 19 aerial drones against sites on Russian territory has been thwarted," the ministry said, identifying intercepts over the Kursk, Bryansk, Oryol and Krasnodar regions. One drone was sent to within 300 kilometers southwest of Moscow and targeted the country's energy infrastructure.
The more the conflict spills over into Russian territory, and utilizing Western long-range weapons, the greater the potential for direct Russian-NATO clash, which would be an unmitigated disaster with potential nuclear implications.
This is why during the Tucker Carlson interview in Moscow, Putin's words on the causes of the Ukraine war and the prospect for a future peace were being closely watched both in Ukraine and the West. Below are some key sections we have zeroed in on, in order to understand Putin's thinking in his own words.
Putin on the origins of the Ukraine conflict
As expected Putin emphasized the threat of NATO and US military expansion near Russia's borders. "We also know who the main adversary for the U.S. and NATO is — it’s Russia. In NATO documents, our country is officially and directly declared the main threat to Euro-Atlantic security. And Ukraine will serve as the advanced foothold for such an attack," he told Carlson.
Putin also at one point sought to downplay that Moscow thought the US would eventually engage in direct attack: "It’s not that America was going to launch a surprise strike on Russia. I didn’t say that," he said.
Going back to the 1990's, Putin explained: "Russia even agreed voluntarily and proactively to the collapse of the Soviet Union, and believed that this would be understood by the so-called civilized West as an invitation for cooperation and association." But, "We were promised no NATO to the east, not an inch to the east, as we were told. And then what? They said, well, it's not enshrined on paper, so we'll expand."
On the West thwarting peace: Boris Johnson
Putin at one point explained that a "huge document" had been prepared and was backed by the head of the Ukranian negotiating team during the early months of the war in 2022, but very quickly then UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson stepped in and "dissuaded" Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky.
"He put his signature and then he himself said, ‘we were ready to sign it and the war would have been over long ago’. However, Prime Minister Johnson came talk to us out of it, and we've missed that chance," Putin said. He described that this had presented a legitimate window of peace by the Spring of 2022. But then... "Prime Minister Johnson came to talk us out of it and we missed that chance. Well, you missed it," he said.
"The fact that they obey the demand or persuasion of Mr Johnson, the former Prime Minister of Great Britain, seems ridiculous. Where is Mr Johnson now? And the war continues."
Carlson replied: “That’s a good question. Where do you think he is, and why did he do that?” Putin then said that it was become of Johnson's "arrogance, because of a pure heart, but not because of a great mind."
Looks like the Biden Administration deployed Boris Johnson to scuttle a tentative peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in spring 2022. This was never about the Ukrainian people. It was always about engineering a war against Russia. #Kennedy24https://t.co/SYyFEqy5El
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) June 19, 2023
On how the war could quickly escalate to direct war with NATO: WW3
Putin said Washington has been engaged in "cheap provocation" given its extensive aid to the Zelensky government and military. He pointed out that if Western boots are on the ground, this could lead to WW3: "If somebody has the desire to send regular troops, that would certainly bring humanity to the brink of a very serious global conflict," he told Carlson.
That's when he emphasized America must focus on its many problems at home. "Don’t you have anything better to do? You have issues on the border. Issues with migration, issues with the national debt. More than $33 trillion," he said. "Wouldn’t it be better to negotiate with Russia? Make an agreement. Already understanding the situation that is developing today, realizing that Russia will fight for its interests to the end."
He held out of the possibility of a new Cold War exploding in the heart of Europe: "If NATO expands, everything would be just the same as during the Cold War, only closer to Russia's borders."
But, Putin said "It goes against common sense to get involved in some kind of a global war and a global war will bring all humanity to the brink of destruction."
Is Putin seeking to expand the war into Europe?
From the start of the war it has remained a key talking point of Western pundits and leaders to assume Putin is driving an 'expansionist' war that threatens the rest of Europe. This has even resulted in some leading European allies to drastically increase their defense spending and arms production.
Zelensky too has long said that if the West doesn't stop Russia in Ukraine, then EU countries are next to be attacked. But Putin in the interview batted down the idea that it's an expansionist war or based on 'imperial ambitions'. He called it "out of the question".
He addressed it specifically in the following: "Only in one case, if Poland attacks Russia. Why? Because we have no interest in Poland, Latvia or anywhere else. Why would we do that? We simply don't have any interest."
He said this likely given Poland has in recent years been host to growing US and NATO military infrastructure, even at one point Warsaw leaders proposed a sprawling 'Fort Trump' base.
Putin on the potential for negotiated peace
"I will tell you what we are saying on this matter and what we are conveying to the U.S. leadership. If you really want to stop fighting, you need to stop supplying weapons," Putin said at one point.
He suggested there are ongoing talks related to prisoner/hostage swaps with the US: "Certain terms being discussed via special services channels," he said of imprisoned WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich.
He again complained that early on, a peaceful settlement was actually close: "There have been [talks] they reached a very high stage of coordination of positions in a complex process, but still they were almost finalized. But after we withdrew our troops from Kiev... the other side threw away all these agreements," Putin told Carlson.
"Wouldn't it be better to come to an agreement with Russia? To agree, understanding the situation that is today, understanding that Russia will fight for its interests to the end, and, understanding this, actually return to common sense, start respecting our country, its interests and look for some solutions?"
He said he's 'ready' for negotiations, despite Russia clearly being dominant in the war. Putin explained: "Let us go back to the fact that NATO and U.S. military bases started to appear on the territory, Ukraine creating threats to us. Let us go back to coup d'etat in Ukraine in 2014. It is pointless, though, isn't it? We may go back and forth endlessly, but they stopped negotiations. Is it a mistake? Yes. Correct it. We are ready. What else is needed?
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Interestingly, Russian media is touting the Tucker Carlson interview as the first time Putin has offered 'concrete conditions' which can lead to settlement. "I think the most important message in Putin’s interview is that Russia is ready for for a political or diplomatic solution of the Ukraine conflict," said Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for European and International Studies at Russia’s Higher School of Economics, to Russia's Sputnik. “But it requires a political will from the United States." he said.
The West is calling all of this more of Putin's 'propaganda' - but the reality remains that Russia is winning the war, and thus has less reason to enter negotiations. This fact alone means Putin's words mark a significant invitation and overture. Yet Ukraine would have to do the one thing Zelensky has vehemently refused to do: territorial concessions as well as forever giving up claims on Crimea. But this is an inevitability, even if it takes years, Putin and his officials have pointed out.
