HERE WE GO
A few charts to kick this issue off.
Crude oil — in a bull market.
Uranium — in a bull market.
Next up, gold. Also in a bull market.
Bitcoin. While we don’t own it in our portfolio, we’ve said to own it (personally, in a cold wallet). In a bull market as well.
Tidewater (proxy for offshore oil). Bull market.
Frontline (shipping proxy).
Argentina (YPF as a proxy). Bull market.
Japan (using the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF as a proxy). Also in a bull market.
Copper — in a bull market as well.
Of course, it helps that the current ever expanding war (COVID being the opening salvo) has now gone increasingly kinetic as Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria (an act of war by international standards), followed by the Iranians lobbing a few drones their way.
So we’ve got the Europeans ramping up to go to battle with the Russian bear, the West thinking it can isolate Russia accordingly, but then the Israelis have figured out that the obvious loss of this Ukrainian war (those still believing that Ukraine is winning being solely of the “CNN is the truth” mindset — in other words lobotomised) puts them in an awkward position.
You see, they are surrounded by enemies and supported by the mighty US military. That military is proving itself a tad weak now. Failing to quell the African states breaking away from the clutches of Western powers, and now the aforementioned obvious failure in Ukraine.
So what is Netanyahu to do? He’s hated domestically, and his reputation now hinges on defeating Hamas, but defeating Hamas I’d argue is practically impossible. But men backed into corners tend to make completely irrational decisions, and so here we are. The Israelis possibly figure that they need to destroy Iran and their enemies now, before the US loses all its credibility and fighting prowess.
The issue, of course, is that both Russia and China see that as problematic for them and will step in to support Iran. This is already happening. That useless rag the Washington Post called it a “desperate alignment.”
What’s clearly evident to anyone paying attention is that the desperation is increasingly sitting with Washington itself.
And speaking of desperation, this all leaves the cocaine dwarf left feeling unloved. Israel and Iran are the next distraction for the masses.
A distraction that’s needed to divert attention from the fact that the Russkies are solidly winning that war.
All of this is obviously positive for the price of metals, oil, and most anything in the supply chain for Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.
Here’s the thing, though, and I don’t mind sticking my neck out on this. To my way of thinking there is no chance, zero, none, nada that with the open borders in the US (for years now) there aren’t entire battalions sipping Starbuks lattes on US soil. Battalions of who, you might say?
Well, consider the dozens and dozens of nations and groups that the US has carpet bombed in the name of democracy for the last.. oh, I dunno… 80 years. It’d almost be irresponsible for say the Iranians, the Chinese, the Russians to NOT take advantage of wide open borders. In any event, I’d say the odds of a dust up of some sorts on US soil as this war rolls on are not zero.
Why am I telling you all of this? Well, take a look at all those charts I’ve just shown you and think through what gets bid and what gets sold in this sort of environment. We’re still nowhere near any top in these markets.
Chris MacIntosh
Insider 293
How Our Fund Is Frontrunning The Economic Madness
- Copper - Copper prices have to rise to address a huge supply deficit looming on the horizon.
- Shipping - Shipping is vital for the functioning of the modern world, yet is priced for bankruptcy.
- Eastern Europe - Position for the long term trend of capital moving from the West to the East with Polish and Russian equities markets.
- US Dollar - We’re bearish all paper currencies, but believe that the USD will outperform all others.
- Base Metals - Clean energy targets require more battery metals than existing global supply.
- Off Shore Oil & Gas - Offshore oil investment has been smashed, yet consumption continues to grow.
- Rare Earth Metals - A play on geopolitics and a cycle that should see a repricing of these commodities.
- Uranium - The looming supply deficit promises to pay handsomely when the market inevitably reprices.
- Gold - Gold sees the perfect storm; the turn of a cycle, supply issues, and lack of faith in sovereign currency.
- Coal - Modern society is dependent on coal, with supply continually growing. Is there a more hated investment?
- Personal Defense - Order is breaking down in the US, and the unrest is giving us an opportunity to position for asymmetry.
- Agriculture - Lockdowns and monetary stimulus have ensured food prices will rise, providing deep value.
- Natural Gas - Supply and demand dynamics coupled with dependency from the US provides a great opportunity.
- Plus much much more...
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