BofA's practically omniscient analysts were more in line with consensus this month for their US retail sales forecast, with a return to growth expected in May's data (after a less enthusiastic April print).
Notably, however, consensus and BofA were over optimistic as the headline retail sales rose just 0.1% MoM (vs +0.3% MoM exp). Worse still, April's 0.0% change was revised down to a 0.2% MoM decline, leaving the headline (nominal) retail sales print up just 2.3% YoY...
Source: Bloomberg
Ex-Autos, the picture was worse with sales dropping 0.1% MoM (vs +0.2% exp) and Ex Autos and Gas Stations rose just 0.1% MoM (vs +0.4% MoM exp).
Gas Stations and Food Services spending were the biggest downside drivers, offsetting increased spending on motor vehicles and non-store (online) retailers...
Source: Bloomberg
The crucial control group - which is used in the GDP calculation also disappointed in May and April was revised lower - not a great start for Q2's GDP (April -05%, May +0.4%). That is the fourth monthly miss in a row...
Source: Bloomberg
And finally, admittedly a crude approximation, adjusting the nominal retail sales print for inflation (CPI), we see real retail sales declined in May...
Source: Bloomberg
ah, Bidenomics...
