There's little doubt that 'spy wars' between Russian and NATO countries have already long been in progress in parallel to the ground war in Ukraine. This also amid a spate of mystery sabotage and arson attacks both in Europe and Russia, in what appears tit-for-tat covert ops targeting infrastructure.
But a new Times (UK) report strongly suggests Russia and Belarus are increasingly ready to jointly ramp up these spy and espionage measures against NATO targets, connected to the Ukrainian proxy war.
Kremlin intelligence officials describe that moving to an offensive spy posture is the necessary reaction to increased provocations by NATO countries near the Russian border.
According to the Times:
The Belarusian and Russian security services are preparing to take “preemptive” measures against Nato member states, the Kremlin’s spy chief has said.
Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia’s SVR foreign intelligence service, accused Nato of an increase in military activity near the borders of the two countries. Belarus is Russia’s strongest ally in Europe and the Kremlin has used its territory for attacks on Ukraine. Moscow also says it has transferred tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.
Spy chief Naryshkin described while in Minsk alongside Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, "We feel and see that European countries, especially France, Britain and Germany, are increasing the level of escalation around the Ukrainian conflict, so we need to act preemptively. We are ready for this."
Nothing that there have been no 'mystery' sabotage attacks in either Serbia or Hungary (both which are relatively Russia friendly), The Times recounts:
A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank said the number of attacks nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, after quadrupling between 2022 and 2023. It read: “Despite the increase in Russian attacks, western countries have not developed an effective strategy to counter these attacks.”
There have been mystery fires inside Russia as well, particularly targeting defense and energy sector buildings. To some extent, both are likely waging intensified sabotage campaigns against the other at this point.
Last year, Anne Keast-Butler, head of the UK's GCHQ, or signals intelligence operations (which is the equivalent of America's NSA), warned in her first major speech that President Putin was plotting "physical attacks" against Western targets.
The GCHQ director claimed at the time that Moscow is busy "nurturing and inspiring" groups of cyber attackers, and is even "in some cases seemingly coordinating physical attacks against the West."
Last year, an Ikea in Lithuania's capital went up in flames, and authorities just last month pinned it on Russian intelligence or saboteurs after a lengthy investigation. The fire, which targeted the Swedish retailer store in Vilnius on the May 9, 2024, resulted in no casualties. Interestingly, the two prime suspects taken into custody were actually Ukrainian citizens.
"It has been established that through a series of intermediaries... the organizers of these crimes are in Russia and this is connected to military intelligence and security forces," the Lithuanian prosecutor's office said, describing a 'destabilization' campaign in Europe.
