Russia, Ukraine Conduct Biggest Prisoner Swap Of The War

In a rare bright spot of positive news out of Ukraine, the Russian and Ukrainian governments announced a major prisoner exchange late Wednesdsay, described as the biggest single swap of captives thus far after nearly two years of war.

The two sided exchanged over two hundred captives soldiers each, following talks mediated by the United Arab Emirates. "More than 200 of our soldiers and civilians have been returned from Russian captivity," Ukraine's President Zelensky said on Telegram.

Videos of men celebrating and being reunited with friends and family confirmed the major deal. "There was a long pause in the exchanges, but there was no pause in the negotiations," Zelensky had added.

While there have been many prisoner swaps throughout the war, typically involving dozens at a time, there had not been a successful swap since last August, which is almost five months ago.

Russia's Defense Ministry specified that 248 of its servicemen were able to be returned home, and they are undergoing "medical and psychological assistance." As for the Ukrainian side, it received 224 of its soldiers and six civilians back.

The UAE hailed that it maintains "strong friendly relations" with both Russia and Ukraine which made the deal possible. At this moment it remains unknown how many POWs are in each side's possession, but it's likely a number at least in the many thousands.

A New York Times report speculates as to why there's been almost a half-year lull in prisoner swaps: 

Direct communications between the countries have been infrequent since the early days of the war, but the two sides have regularly exchanged prisoners of war through deals brokered by a third-party, like the U.A.E. or Turkey. Ukraine’s human rights commissioner, Dmytro Lubinets, said there had been 49 exchanges in total, including Wednesday’s, with 2,828 Ukrainians returned. Russia hasn’t disclosed a total number, but at least 1,000 have been returned, according to statements by the country’s officials.

The rate dropped in 2023, however, after the release in Turkey of five former commanders of Ukraine’s garrison in the Azovstal steel plant angered Moscow. The last exchange of prisoners between the two countries occurred in August, when 22 Ukrainian soldiers were returned.

This new large-scale swap also confirms that both sides are at least keep up negotiations or some level of communications indirectly, via third party mediating countries. Zelensky has consistently refused to enter any negotiations which would result in Ukraine ceding territory; however, Ukraine is having a severe manpower and ammo shortage crisis.

Because of this, most analysts see an eventual negotiated settlement as inevitable. But Kiev wants better leverage, and is still holding out hopes of receiving more defense funding and advanced weaponry from the West.