The US government in its 2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community - which was just released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in conjunction with top officials’ testimony at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing Tuesday - has admitted that Ukraine's battlefield prospects are fading amid the onslaught of superior Russian forces.
Currently, Moscow has "seized the upper hand" in the war over the past year, the fresh assessment warns, and "is on a path to accrue greater leverage" as peace talks with Washington are underway.
"Even though Russian President [Vladimir] Putin will be unable to achieve the total victory he envisioned when initiating the large-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia retains momentum as a grinding war of attrition plays to Russia’s military advantages,” the report states.
"This grinding war of attrition will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyiv’s position on the battlefield, regardless of any U.S. or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow," it continues.
This should come as no surprise to any objective observer; however, what is surprising is the huge amount of Russian losses estimated by US intelligence. While there's no way of verifying such information, the report claims that there are over 750,000 dead and wounded on the Russian side.
Still, the intel community emphasizes the Russian military machine's ability to quickly replenish personnel while growing its industrial capacity to continually support the war.
On the prospect for achieving a quick peace settlement, the report notes that both Russian and Ukrainian leadership "probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement."
"For Russia, positive battlefield trends allow for some strategic patience, and for Ukraine, conceding territory or neutrality to Russia without substantial security guarantees from the West could prompt domestic backlash and future insecurity."
"Regardless of how and when the war in Ukraine ends, Russia’s current geopolitical, economic, military, and domestic political trends underscore its resilience and enduring potential threat to U.S. power, presence, and global interests," it adds.
According to the DNI assessment, Russia had more than 750,000 military casualties during its war in Ukraine. By comparison, the U.S. had just over a million service members killed or wounded in World War II. The U.S. at the time had a population roughly the same size as Russia… pic.twitter.com/pG8PPUAoHl
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) March 26, 2025
But interestingly, in her Tuesday testimony before the Senate Intelligence Community, director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard characterized Russia as a "formidable competitor" but stopped short of calling Moscow an adversary, which former Biden intel officials frequently did.
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A note from UBS [emphasis ZH]...
US Intelligence On Russia Nuclear Capacity, China And Taiwan
The US annual threat assessment from the Director of National Intelligence carries warnings about Russia and China. The 2025 edition warned that Russia is developing a satellite capable of carrying a nuclear weapon. It said that China was making aggressive efforts to assert its sovereignty in the south and east China seas, and seems likely to increase its economic pressure on Taiwan.
Indeed the report warned that China represented the most comprehensive and robust military threat to US security. The report claimed that both Russia and China are eyeing up Greenland for natural resources.
