Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
Hope everybody had a fantastic start to the year. I wanted to write a personal note and then also talk about where I stand on the economy and markets heading into the second month of 2025.
First off, as those following me on my Twitter account may know, today I am 72 days free of both alcohol and gambling. Around November of last year, I had what could only be described as a spiritual shift in my life and decided that both alcohol and gambling—both in casinos and on sports, in addition to actively trading stocks and any trading of options—were no longer serving me in my personal life.
My longtime followers know that I have always been in the midst of some type of mental health work on myself, and I’ve been open about the fact that I have been in therapy for the better part of the last decade.
Over the last decade, I’ve made incredible strides personally, and now, as I get into my early 40s, it felt like a great time to shed my skin one more time and focus a little bit deeper on the tip of the spear of some issues in my life that were driving a lot of negative feelings. In other words, I’m evolving, and it feels great.
This shirt I saw in Mexico a couple weeks ago sums it up.
My plan is to still actively commentate on markets and talk about names and sectors that I like, but my gambling career — marked generally by meaningless safeties, running backs taking a knee before the goal line, full court hail mary shots going in for backdoor spread covers and dealers pulling nine card 21’s while I have 20 — and active trading career—marked generally by an astounding inability to not overreact or overcorrect and personally screw up trades even when my thesis is right — have both come to an end.
Over the last 72 days, I’ve felt an immense clarity, peace, and calm in my life that I haven’t had at any point over the last 20 years. My hope for my kind, loyal readers is that stepping back ever so slightly from the “action” actually sharpens my focus and allows me to see things more clearly. It is not lost on me that commentating on markets and continuing to watch sports, both of which I love, can both be triggers, and so I am working programs and therapy aggressively on my own behalf to ensure I give myself the best chance every day to wake up in the light of life, and not the darkness. I have an incredible support system around me and do “the work” daily in an attempt to give myself the best possible shot to walk this corridor. Today felt like a great time to share it with my readers and “recover loudly” as they say.
Another thing I’ve done this morning that I’ve wanted to do for years is open up my chat room thread to subscribers. This is a thread where my subscribers can discuss the content I’ve put out for the day or whatever the hell else anybody wants to talk about. It’s just a little bit better for active discussion than article comments, though I do still encourage those as well. I will also try to dip into the chat once every couple of days and will use it to post occasional brain farts that are not worthy of their own individual posts.
Diving into the market, and taking a look at the 25 stocks I’m watching for 2025, as highlighted at the beginning of this year, we’re outperforming the S&P by about 9% out of the gate this year. Amazing what happens when you’re not actively killing brain cells with booze or forcing your body through enough stress on a D-II women’s volleyball game, or Korean ping pong match, that it feels like you’re pulling 5 G’s in the back of a fighter jet.
As a reminder, the last 2 years, I lagged the S&P, so take all photos and pop all champagne now - as is the case with anything on my blog, your expectation should always be for things to implode without notice. Here's a review of the 25 stocks I'm watching for 2025.
It still looks as though it’s going to be a fork in the road between hyperinflation and a deflationary depression. The conflict between President Trump and Jerome Powell as it relates to interest rates will be worth watching, if not only for the sheer drama of it—especially if equity markets start to move lower.
I wrote about a year and a half ago that I thought either Nvidia or...(READ THIS FULL ARTICLE HERE).
QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
