Stopping The Steal This Time
There's been some good news for supporters of President Trump recently, including Nate Silver's first 2024 election model giving Trump an almost 66% chance to win the election.
#NEW @NateSilver538 Forecast:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) June 26, 2024
Chance of winning:
Trump 66%
Biden 34%
.
Electoral votes:
Trump 287
Biden 250https://t.co/70wWBjEaZX pic.twitter.com/XSimuXTmKk
That, of course, assumes a fair election. The bad news is that there have been some attempts to make it unfair, including 49 states giving voter registration forms to illegal aliens.
Welfare offices in 49 states are handing out voter registration applications to illegal aliens. No proof of citizenship required. https://t.co/JshPCpYHRC
— J Michael Waller (@JMichaelWaller) June 23, 2024
Former Trump staffer Stephen Miller's organization, America First legal, laid out its plan to stop these illegals from registering to vote in the X thread below.
/2 We sent a letter to the chief election official of all 50 States, with a copy to each Governor and Attorney General explaining how they can use two key existing federal laws to obtain information from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security about the citizenship or…
— America First Legal (@America1stLegal) June 24, 2024
/4🚨Let’s discuss the problem…
— America First Legal (@America1stLegal) June 24, 2024
The issue of noncitizens voting in federal elections can be complex–including what States are and are not allowed to do when voter applicants use the federal form. Keep reading…
/6 The U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC) created a federal voter registration form that does not require applicants to demonstrate proof of citizenship. Instead, it merely requires voter registrants to sign a form “under penalty of perjury,” swearing or affirming that “I… pic.twitter.com/OtjD2LODrH
— America First Legal (@America1stLegal) June 24, 2024
/8 🚨🚨🚨
— America First Legal (@America1stLegal) June 24, 2024
The result is that, under current law as interpreted by the Supreme Court, anyone can register to vote using the EAC Federal Form without providing documentary proof of citizenship.
🚨🚨🚨
/10 Further, aside from the weaknesses in the EAC Federal Form, there are gaps and loopholes in the voter registration process in States that do not (or did not in the past, particularly prior to the requirements of the REAL ID Act of 2005 related to driver’s licenses) require…
— America First Legal (@America1stLegal) June 24, 2024
/12 🚨Now, let’s discuss the SOLUTION…
— America First Legal (@America1stLegal) June 24, 2024
2 federal statutes that have been on the books for nearly three decades allow states to obtain information about the citizenship or immigration status of any individual for any lawful purpose...
/14 Further, 8 U.S.C. § 1644 provides that: pic.twitter.com/GEFKyD1Vc6
— America First Legal (@America1stLegal) June 24, 2024
/16 As explained above, federal law unambiguously requires that voters in federal elections be United States citizens and prohibits all foreign nationals, even those who are lawfully present in the United States, from registering to vote or voting. Federal law also imposes on…
— America First Legal (@America1stLegal) June 24, 2024
/18 CRITICAL:
— America First Legal (@America1stLegal) June 24, 2024
Accordingly, States and localities should submit requests to DHS to verify the citizenship or immigration status of registered voters on voter rolls where there are any reliable indicators that a voter may not be a U.S. citizen.
/20 States must act swiftly to ensure that only citizens vote in this fall’s elections.https://t.co/Cgb51dCtt4
— America First Legal (@America1stLegal) June 24, 2024
Of course, challenge here is what happens if the states don't act swiftly to ensure that only citizens vote--what's our recourse if they don't?
In Case You Missed It
In our post yesterday (Volkswagen Puts Our Rivian Bet In The Black), we mentioned three trades that have moved in our direction this week.
Volkswagen Puts Our Rivian Bet In The Black
— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) June 26, 2024
With our Novo Nordisk and Carvana bets cruising this week too, a look at the pros and cons of trading stocks versus options on these. $RIVN $CVNA $NVO https://t.co/lyGbyVtB5A
Of those three trades, the one that looks the most promising is our Carvana trade:
Carvana And Call Spreads
Like Novo Nordisk, Carvana Co. (CVNA) was a Portfolio Armor top ten name when we entered our trade on it this month. Unlike with Novo Nordisk, we didn't buy the stock; we entered a call spread on it instead.
We have another trade similar to the Carvana one teed up now, another one of our top names that could give us a ~200% return over the next couple of months if we get it right.
If you'd like a heads up when that trade gets filled, feel free to sign up for our trading Substack/occasional email list below.
If you'd like to stay in touch
You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and create hedged portfolios on our website. You can also follow Portfolio Armor on X here, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we're using that for our occasional emails now).
