The Syrian proxy war never really ended, but it certainly had quieted down for a time, with various factions confined to various areas, and the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seeming stuck in Idlib Province. Today the war is flaring up again in a big way.
HTS forces have pushed eastward out of Idlib into the western part of Aleppo Province and toward Aleppo itself, seizing several towns along the way. It is being reported that around 182 people have been killed Thursday alone in the fighting on the ground in the area. That includes 102 HTS fighters and 80 fighters including both Syrian troops and their allies.
The battles are still ongoing, and the toll continues to increase all the time. The Syrian military seems to be seeing substantial backing from Russian air assets in the area. The HTS is also reported using Ukrainian drones against the Syrian forces. It has been reported for months that Ukraine has offered "drones for fighters" to HTS, but this would mark the first time such drones are being used in a big way in combat.
On top of those killed in the ongoing fighting, the Syrian and Russian air forces have caused substantial civilian casualties. 19 civilians were killed in attacks in and around al-Atareb and Darat Izza, and at least 26 others were wounded. Both of those cities are about 25 km from Aleppo itself, the largest city in Syria, underscoring how quickly the HTS has advanced.
A number of other towns and villages reported airstrikes in the area. Al-Nayrab is by far the closest town to Aleppo to have reported strikes, saying they were hit twice. They are only about 10 km from Aleppo, making them virtually a suburb of the major city.
HTS formed in early 2017 as a merger of several Islamist militant groups, centering initially around fighting Jabhat al-Nusra but ultimately merging with them as well. Jabhat al-Nusra was effectively the Syrian wing of al-Qaeda, though they broke with them publicly in 2016. Despite that, HTS maintains much of the underlying rhetoric of al-Qaeda.
Publicly, HTS and their leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has tried to disavow al-Qaeda and ISIS and has courted favor with the US. He has styled the civilian body in HTS-dominated Idlib the Syrian Salvation Government.
It has long been suspected that this rebranding was more about trying to turn Syrian Sunni Islamist factions into a more palatable partner for Western involvement in the region than any major ideological differences with the international jihadists.
⚡️Al Nusra terrorists on the outskirts of Aleppo pic.twitter.com/cS6jbdRl7g
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) November 29, 2024
The West has a history of backing some of the more local Sunni Islamist groups in the Syrian War. Indeed, the HTS ties with Ukraine’s government underscores that many see them as a practical partner in their respective regional wars.
This could be a growing concern for the Syrian government, as what was once a contained problem in the Idlib Province looks to explode outward starting many of the same fights all over again.
