As Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame prepares for a fourth term, the iron-fisted leader faces several challenges.
Rwanda’s de facto leader since the end of the 1994 genocide, Kagame will need to sustain the country’s economic growth, calm Kigali’s stormy relationship with the Democratic Republic of Congo, and possibly even designate his successor, experts say.
The Congolese question
Always difficult, the relations between Kigali and Kinshasa have deteriorated since the resurgence of the M23 rebellion in eastern DRC at the end of 2021.
Kinshasa accuses the Rwandan army of fighting alongside the M23, claims that are also backed by a UN report.
UN experts said that 3,000-4,000 Rwandan soldiers were on the ground in the DRC and that Kigali had “de facto control” of the M23’s operations.
Kagame has not explicitly denied the presence of Rwandan forces in DRC, but has made no bones about his willingness to take a “defensive” position to protect Kigali’s interests.
“More and more studies demonstrate that the Rwandan development model is strongly based on illicit access to natural resources in the east of the DRC”, particularly minerals, said Paul-Simon Handy, the Africa director at the Institute for Security Studies.
Describing the status quo as a case of “harmful dependence that brings conflict”, Handy told AFP that it was “necessary to work with other countries like DRC, Uganda and Burundi towards an economic model” which encourages cooperation over predatory practices.
“Dialogue is the only option,” said Ismael Buchana, lecturer in political science at the University of Rwanda.
But so far, all attempts at mediation have been unsuccessful.
The economic issues
Kagame inherited an economy in tatters when his Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) militia captured Kigali and ousted the Hutu extremists responsible for the 1994 genocide that targeted Tutsis.
Since then, he has presided over an economic boom, with Rwanda’s GDP increasing more than six-fold between 2000 and 2022 while infrastructure and healthcare has also improved in the hilly nation.
But today, “the model which governed the growth of Rwanda after the genocide is revealing limitations”, said Handy.
The economy remains largely dependent on international aid — which has seen cuts over the last decade due to criticism over Kigali’s involvement in the DRC — and on the Rwandan state.
Public debt accounts for 69.9 percent of GDP in 2024, according to the IMF.
With few natural resources, a limited industrial base and no access to ports, landlocked Rwanda faces many challenges in its push to become a service economy.
Far from the flashy buildings in Kigali, poverty remains an issue.
Nearly one in two Rwandans (48.4 percent) live on less than $2.15 per day, according to the World Bank.
The unemployment rate for young people, who make up the majority of the population, was 16.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to official statistics.
“Growing unemployment, rising inflation, poor education, poverty… All these are like a ticking time bomb,” noted Louis Gitinywa, a Rwandan lawyer and political analyst.
The thorny question of succession
According to Kagame, he has been asking his party to find a successor since 2010.
But for many Rwandans, he is the only leader they have known.
Kagame has overseen controversial constitutional amendments that shortened presidential terms from seven to five years and reset the clock, allowing him to potentially rule until 2034.
But the question of his succession looms.
“It is something he has to prioritise in order to cement and solidify the great achievements that he has made,” Buchana told AFP.
Handy said the succession would be “a real test” for Rwanda.
“It is always worrying when the political and economic life of a country is so dependent on one person.”
For his part, Kagame has rejected the idea of “naming” or “grooming” a successor.
Some observers raise the possibility of a family succession.
His daughter Ange has worked for years in government circles and is currently one of his advisors.
Two of his three sons have also been mooted as potential successors — Ivan, who sits on the Rwanda Development Board, or Ian, a member of the presidential guard who is regularly by his side.
