By Graham Summers, MBA
On November 28th, 2023, I predicted that stocks would hit new all-time highs before February 1, 2024.
Bear in mind, the S&P 500 was at 4,550 when I wrote this. So my prediction meant that the index would have to rally to over 4,818 (the former all-time high established January 3, 2022) in eight weeks’ time.
On Friday this happened, a full two weeks ahead of schedule.
So what happens now?
Stocks are now quite stretched to the upside. I anticipate we’ll see a drop to backtest this recent breakout at 4,800 sometime in the next 10 days. But after that, the door is open to a run to 4,920 by the end of 1Q24. That’s the upside target for the inverse Head and Shoulders pattern the S&P 500 has established in the last four weeks.
So, in the last seven months, we’ve predicted:
1) The S&P 500 to decline to 4,100s (when it was at 4,500).
2) The S&P 500 to rally from the 4,100s to 4,600 (when it was at 4,200).
3) The S&P 500 to hit new all-time highs before February 1st 2024(when it was at 4,550).
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