by J. Kim of skwealthacademy substack
A little more than two years ago, on my now dormant Rokfin channel, I posted a podcast titled, “Everything Wrong with the BTC Narrative”, one day following the launch of the BITO BTC ETF on 19 October 2021 (sorry for the poor audio/video quality of this podcast and other referenced one in this publication, but I was in co-vid lockdown hell when I published that podcast and thus, could only record podcasts with inferior recording equipment. Please reference the last sentence in this article to discover how to listen to that podcast for free). In that podcast, I discussed my analysis from earlier in the year in which I stated that I provided BTC sell guidance at $58,000 that past April and then buy guidance at $30,000 in July, after which I stated BTC prices had to retest the highs of April to suck in a lot of dumb money back into BTC. Thus, BTC achieved exactly the event I stated must be achieved before bankers would crash BTC prices once again, as they did that past April.
BTC prices reached $60,000 on the day I released my “Everything Wrong with the BTC Narrative” podcast. At the 8m 45s mark of the above podcast, I said that my best prediction was for BTC to hit the $65,000 mark in the coming days, and then make one last run higher (which it did, to top out at $70,000), after which “high risk” for another BTC price crash would come into play. Furthermore, at the 17m mark of the above podcast, I exposed aspects of the BITO BTC ETF of which I’m sure many holders of this ETF are still unaware in January of 2024, as ridiculous as is the combination of buying and holding the BITO ETF and being unaware of these aspects would have been on the date of the BITO launch. Finally at the 19m mark, I discussed the likely ongoing price spike higher in BTC prices that would follow the BITO launch and the very high likelihood that the bankers would then execute a carpet pull from November 2021 to January 2022, after luring the dumb money into the BTC market.
And though I stated that I would only inform my patrons on my patreon platform of the BTC price point at which to sell all their BTC in that October 2021 podcast (I eventually issued strong sell guidance at $65,000), I actually followed up that October 2021 podcast on my Rokfin platform to warn my Rokfin subscribers at the time to sell all their BTC just a few weeks later in a podcast titled, “I TOLD EVERYONE THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPEN BUT NO ONE LISTENED" (Reference the last paragraph to discover how to listen to this podcast). When I released this podcast, BTC was trading at about $64,000, was still moving higher, and had not yet started to crash. However, in this podcast, due to multiple signs I had uncovered regarding an imminent banker attack on BTC prices, I actually titled that podcast “no one listened”, even though I published that podcast before the crash even happened, so certain was I of an imminent BTC price crash in November, December, and January and so certain was I that the BTC community would ignore my crash prediction.
And what actually happened after I published my “no one listened” to me podcast?
BTC prices peaked at $70,000 just two days later and crashed all the way to $33,000 by January of 2022, exactly as I predicted. The reason I chose to guide my patreons to sell ALL their BTC at $65,000 and not at $70k was because of the impossibility of predicting exact tops combined with my 99% certainty that a BTC price crash was imminent. Better to issue a sell warning a little early rather than a little late, not knowing how rapidly prices would crash, I thought. Furthermore, though many may have questioned how I could have been so confident of an imminent BTC price crash back then, as reflected in a title that predicted an event that had not yet happened, this confusion solely originates within the community that follow BTC analysts that consistently analyze the wrong metrics, which quite honestly applies to well over 99% of them.
Protecting my subscribers invested in BTC from losing hundreds of thousands of dollars to millions of dollars was far more important than trying to time the peak perfectly. And for those of you that have never watched these podcasts, I would highly recommend, despite the poor video quality of these podcasts, of watching the first linked podcast in its entirety at a minimum, if you are a current BTC investor. I promise that if you have always remained embedded inside the BTC community without exposure to any dissenting opinions, that you will learn a lot of facts about BTC and BTC derivative markets of which you are still unaware today.
More recently, if you are a paid subscriber here, you know that my latest BTC predictions for August, November and December of last year were spot on again, as I wrote that BTC prices would be capped at $40,000 in November, but that if it moved above $40,000 in the last month of 2023, it could approach $45,000 but would be capped and not move any higher than $45,000 to end the year. BTC moved to $44,700 in early December, so it rose to $300 below the price I stated at which it would be capped last month. Now that BTC has broken above $45,000, this price movement has sparked massive optimism that the launch of the spot BTC ETF, expected sometime early this month and possibly as early as next week, will cause BTC prices to continue climbing higher to $60,000, $70,000 or even $80,000 by the time BTC’s halving event happens in mid-April.
In fact, just observe the various very optimistic BTC price predictions for 2024 that have already been inspired by the expected spot BTC ETF launch and the BTC halving event below:
2024 BTC Price Predictions
Youwei Yang, Bit Mining, Chief Economist: $75,000
James Butterfill, CoinShares, Head of Research: $80,000
Antoni Trenchev, Nexo, co-Founder: $100,000
Seth Ginns, CoinFund, Managing Partner: $250,000 to $500,000
What do I expect after the spot BTC ETF launch? By now, all of you should know that I never follow the sheep herd in my price analysis of any asset, whether BTC, the Japanese yen, gold, silver, oil or any other commodity or currency. For now, I’m not observing any banker positioning in the BTC markets that support any of the above ‘pundit” predictions, meaning that the above provided BTC price predictions are all about as solid as pulling a price out of a hat, and nothing more. It doesn’t mean that none of the above predictions can come true later this year, but it 100% means all of them have no substantive backing at the current time and are nothing more than pure guesses.
In fact, as of today, I haven’t encountered anything that would suggest BTC prices can move higher than the $50,000 to $55,000 range in January, even were the launch of a spot BTC ETF to bump BTC prices higher. Of course, price predictions are never static and always dynamic, so were a spot BTC ETF launched on 8 January, I would have to reassess the data again at that time. However, I would not expect any different outcome and trajectory than the one I predicted in the above podcast on the release date of the BTC BITO last 19 October 2021 - a temporary bump higher in prices of a magnitude impossible to predict at the current time, followed by a potentially really big crash.
Though I haven’t spotted any signs as of yet that a big crash is coming after the release of the spot BTC ETF, this is the typical banker M.O. after releasing a BTC derivative product. Should I uncover signs indicative of a BTC crash before it happens to the point I’m so confident I can publish another podcast titled, “I Told Everyone This Was Going to Happen, and No One Listened”, then I will be sure to publish my opinion, along with my reasoning, on my susbtack newsletter. Just be sure to subscribe today if you wish to be informed of this.
(Currently, you can receive a 20% discount on my annual subscription fees for NEW subscribers only by clicking this link).
Finally, click this link to find the direct links to the aforementioned BTC podcasts in this article.
