The departure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad marks a pivotal shift in the geopolitical landscape. The regime change unveils a well-calculated power play by global actors to reshape not only Syria but the Middle East and the world.
The day Syrian President Bashar Assad flew out of Damascus, I was stunned, like (almost) everyone else. Syria had fallen into chaos after so many lives and resources had been spent. The ramifications seemed unfathomable. Like many of my colleagues, I was anxious to report on the situation and its apparent repercussions. Then I stopped to think. This kind of upheaval does not just happen; a more extensive and better-calculated plan must be in the works. Here’s what I think happened.
The Lost Cause
For Assad and Syria, the game was over when U.S.-backed forces took the Eastern city of Raqqa in 2017. The reason Syria is now experiencing a regime change is that the United States and its allies seized control of the oil-rich and grain-rich breadbasket of the country. The oil fields of this region fell into the hands of the U.S.-backed SDF, which cut off revenue the Syrian president needed to keep his country afloat. To be sure, Assad had to know his reign was nearly over, and Putin certainly did, from the moment Syria became partitioned as it was. What we are witnessing today is, for all intents and purposes, detente in the dark. The dark, of course, is a condition of the United States. I’ll explain this later. The point is, we are witnessing a deal making process on a global scale.
Returning to Assad for the moment, the U.S. has been the guarantor of security for the breakaway insurgents in Eastern Syria through the presence of 2,000 special forces and continuous air support. And though Turkey has been miffed over the situation because of the Kurdish YPG, Ankara has been forced to ride the proverbial fence owing to the Russian card in the region. However, Eastern Syria is not only about oil and gas, Northeast Syria (NES) is Syria’s most productive agricultural region. Putting these two facts together, it's easy to see how Assad and all the other actors knew this regime change would happen. For those questioning why Assad’s army failed to fight back the most recent insurgency, soldiers forced to work second jobs to feed their families are not what empires are made of. The retreat was inevitable. As I said, Assad and his supporters in Russia, Iran, and the region knew this was coming for years. The American hegemony did, as well. But the only real question for the Americans, Israelis, and EU leadership was how far Russia was prepared to go to side with the Syrian president. Facing the inevitable, I believe Putin came up with a plan where everyone would benefit.
Putin is the Smartest of All
I could go into how the Israelis have profited and will profit from the Syria carnage. Greater Israel is now in the making. Remember when ISIS was shipping oil through Turkey, headed for Israel under the watchful eyes of the U.S. Central Command? Remember when Vladimir Putin televised his Air Force destroying 60,000 tanker trucks and other ISIS activities in the region? I could be mistaken, but I believe Recep Erdoğan’s brother was running the black market operation that profited from Syrian oil robbed by ISIS and then the American contingent; you can check my memory. What’s more important today is what’s about to take place. As I said, the deal to come.
Turning back to the ousting of Assad, I wonder how many people found it curious that the Syrian president and his family took off for Russia on the day after President-elect Donald Trump met with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. At almost the exact moment Trump demanded a ceasefire in Ukraine, the rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, along with an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army, drove their way into the heart of Syria’s capital. Within hours, the Turks and the Israelis moved to seize territory and strategic positions. The mainstream media in the West chimed in, as usual, telling us Putin’s administration had received a fatal blow. The ports the Russians “needed” on Syria’s Western shores would surely fall into the U.S. orbit along with the “new” Syria. Now, let’s turn the page, starting with the hidden truth in a sensational headline from The Guardian:
“Elon Musk, the world’s richest man who is now central to Donald Trump’s election campaign, has been in regular contact with Vladimir Putin for the past two years, according to a report in the US.”
This derogatory report with “the sky is falling” whining from the corporate lackeys in the media harps on a given fact, Dmitry Peskov admitted "the Kremlin had talked with Musk over a single telephone call in which he and Putin discussed space as well as current and future technologies”. Let’s sit back for a moment and digest this. Putin’s right-hand man makes no bones about a call that probably bears on what we are witnessing today. How so, you ask? There are several reasons, but one big one is that the eastern part of Ukraine has one of the world’s largest reserves of lithium and other rare Earth minerals. Okay, let’s just say the world’s richest man and the guy in charge of streamlining America’s economy will soon be guaranteed key raw materials for his Tesla and other projects. From my viewpoint, Musk has several other positions/duties in play even before Donald Trump is inaugurated.
What about Trump and his bromance with Israel’s Netanyahu? Well, Israel will undoubtedly solidify its position in the Middle East by ruining the Assad-led Syria and grabbing as much land as possible. Then there’s the strategic/economic win for the Israelis. We must remember where a large part of that black market ISIS oil ended up. Add to this the fact Hezbollah and Iran will be cut off from one another, and Israel is the second-biggest winner in this under-the-table detente. Greater Israel, which has been the real focus of U.S. diplomacy/war in the region, only lacks one piece to become a complete puzzle. A recent interview conducted by Tucker Carlson with Jeffrey Sachs is telling as well. A key takeaway from that interview is the fact that Bibi Netanyahu and his American colleagues planned Arab Spring, or the 7 wars in 5 years General Wesley Clark fumbled onto the airwaves. Sachs says Syria and the other plays on behalf of Israel started 30 years ago, but that former President Obama has the key role in the military efforts subsequent to Afghanistan and Iraq.
And Russia gets, what? Israel and Turkey get most of Syria and all those benefits, and Russia gets about a third of current Ukraine and the gas valves opened to Europe. You see, all Vladimir Putin ever wanted was to make his people richer by exporting gas, oil, and other resources to energy-starved, resource-poor Europe. Russia sidestepped the sanctions and blew up pipelines, which put the EU in a fix, but the plan is to open those lines and allow Iran to trade with China and South Asia in oil and natural gas. The Iranians may get some stuff blown up to make Trump and Netanyahu look good, but the Iranian people will be more prosperous, exporting more and preparing for war less. You see, Vladimir Putin looks at the world as a slick running machine (potentially), with each part playing an integral role. I also think Elon Musk and some others see this as well. Does shipping something that could be made next door 9,000 miles to a trusted customer make sense? Or does an optimized network of productive people and countries make more sense?
The Banksters Buy In
So, what do BlackRock and the European bankers who started all this mess get? Well, the Russians are bound to snatch more Ukraine territory before the “deal” is sealed (about 30 square km a day as I type this), but when relations cool down, the world’s biggest lenders will still get to rebuild and commit piracy in what’s left of Ukraine. They also get offshore gas deposits and innovative energy investments. Perhaps Musk discussed this with Putin, too? Who can say? What seems pointedly apparent is that someone is looking at this whole “globalization” situation from a broader perspective. Take a look at the geography, for instance. Look how far it is from China to Germany or Cairo, for instance. The “belt and road” initiative is a viable conduit for region-to-region transport, but the world cannot afford it in the form most analysts understand. What if Russia and other bordering nations grow sufficiently to replace the United States and Europe in trade for this new order of nations? What if “distance” and “costs” are considered, and globalization is rethought? Musk is said to have already proposed changes to the U.S. economy to save $1 trillion, how much good could that sum do for America's decrepit infrastructure? Americans will also gain a lot from these wars ending and from a new multipolar order, this is not revealed to the average American because the banksters wanted the status quo. Now they have to be thinking about Plan B.
Europe gets to make cars, cheese, olive oils, fashion, perfumes, and some mechanical exports, but it also serves as a tourist attraction and a consumer market. Europeans are better off because of a friendly Russia, cheap gas, and losing the NATO stone tied about its neck. Think about Russia expanding its industrial base to supply products that may be even cheaper than Chinese variants? Or the Middle East and Africa, which are in closer proximity? Let’s pretend Trump aims to make America more self-sufficient and isolationist. How much better off would North and South America be if globalization were segmented more logically? Instead of sending gas to Europe, what if Americans use their own gas. Perhaps men like Musk and Putin see this. And if they see it, then the old liberal order certainly does. Two questions remain. First, are we seeing the first policy supermarket for global peace take shape? How will the big pie be organized? Perhaps this is what is meant by the multipolar world.
Let’s see if I am right. Let’s see if the biggest deal of all is in the offing.
A version of The Syria Gambit was published previously at NEO
