TL;DR
- Trump’s new, pragmatic foreign policy recognizes multipolarity
- He’s redefined U.S. diplomacy—from managing North American relations and the Middle East to engaging directly with Russia over Ukraine.
- A historic summit with Putin and Xi, reshaping global power dynamics is likely to accompany the economic global reset underway
The Yalta Conference 2
[Subtitles and emphasis added]
The title of this article should be fairly straightforward and easy to understand. If not, the meme below (credit to whoever made it) should assist the imagination. The main purpose of this essay is to lay out some of my observations of recent events since Trump took office, and in the greater scheme of things, some wild conjecture. The numbers and details of the negotiations will not be covered here.
Trump 2.0 Approach
Trump 2.0 is drastically different from 1.0 in many ways. Despite the disruptive events that are going on within the US, Trump has so far displayed a much more mature, realistic, and pragmatic approach in international affairs/geopolitics based on a correct and deep understanding of the world today. This, in my humble opinion, is critical to how things are going to unfold in the next few years and a “one stone, many birds” strategy that may cement his legacy and status in history. (Imagine a Nobel Peace Prize and DOGE’s discovery of how much of the funds back-channeled to democratic politicians?)
Trump’s Geopolitical Style
Trump recognizes power and correctly understands the reality today as opposed to the Biden admin – it is a multipolar world already and the unipolar world order (US hegemony) had already ended before he even took office. He tackled the easier ones first (Canada, Mexico, and Panama) by waving his stick while successfully brokering a ceasefire deal in the Middle East for now (Iran will be a talking point in the Yalta Conference 2.0). He also tested water with China through a phone call with Chairman Xi, tariffs exchange, and a non-response from Beijing for his visit plan, then he quickly realized that his old assumptions and methodology were no longer valid. Trump then turned to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, like many have predicted, he initiated a conversation directly with Russia.
Somewhat unsurprisingly, the first meeting between the Russian envoy led by Sergei Lavrov and the US delegates headed by Marco Rubio went smoothly in Riyadh. There is clearly an expectation gap before two sides came to the table; on one hand, Lavrov said this meeting was to begin the normalization process of the Russia-US relations while on the other hand the US side appeared eager to make a deal. As of Feb 26th, 2025, Russia’s Foreign Ministry had dismissed reports of a follow-up meeting between U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia this week, saying no such talks were scheduled. “There are no meetings in Riyadh with the participation of the Foreign Ministry today,” the ministry was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was visiting Tehran on Tuesday for talks with Iranian officials (echoing my point in the last paragraph).
Russia-Ukraine War- “EU on the Menu”
Russia has laid out the terms for a ceasefire while continuing to make progress on the battlefield. As an old adage goes, one won’t get on the negotiation table what one can’t achieve on the battleground. On the other side, Trump desperately wants to end this war but Europe isn’t helping (sent another $3.5bn to Ukraine, some suspect it is for the payrolls to keep the war going). With the way this negotiation has come about and JD Vance’s show and dance at the Munich Security Conference last week,a rude awakening has landed in the face of European leaders who may have realized that they no longer have a seat at the table. They are on the menu (quoting Antony Blinken).
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