When two narrative constructions collide...
The first narrative is that “Russia has reached its reserves, the military industry is on the verge of collapse.”
Between 2022 and 2025, Russia re-deployed more than 4,000 tanks. Logically, these were in the best condition, so they probably only required minor repairs and renovations before they were put back into combat readiness. At the same time, the analysis states, as Russia was forced to reactivate tanks in increasingly poor condition, the pace of their withdrawal slowed. While several thousand units were added to the fighting forces in 2022 and 2023, only 342 tanks were removed from storage between February 2024 and February 2025.
According to analysts, despite the fact that there are another 4,500 tanks in storage, their poor technical condition will make it difficult to restore them. At the rate at which the Russian military is using them in Ukraine, it is almost impossible.
To make matters worse for Russia, these tanks include 650 T-64s. This type was not produced in Russia, so it is unlikely that they will attempt to restore them. Moscow is estimated to have only 1,200 serviceable tanks left.
The other narrative is that Russia is booming and its military industry is outpacing all of NATO, according to 4-star U.S. General Christopher G. Cavoli.
“As a result, the Russian defense industrial base is expected to produce 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles this year (the United States produces only about 135 tanks a year and is no longer producing new Bradley fighting vehicles). Russia is producing 250,000 artillery rounds per month, “on track to amass a stockpile three times larger than the United States and Europe combined.”
What is the reality? A mix of the two.
Russia has largely exhausted its stockpiled equipment and ammunition
It produces more in most categories than all NATO countries combined.
However, what Cavoli says is misleading. Of the 1,500 tanks mentioned, 1,300 are often 40-50-year-old T-72s scraped from warehouses and brought back in order, or the repair of equipment damaged on the battlefield. Only 200 are new tanks, T-90s. And the fact is, NATO does not produce that much today, in addition to the 135 American tanks, the Germans produce perhaps 40-50 Leopard 2s. But these do not go to Ukraine, but to customers, such as us in Hungary.
Most of the 3,000 infantry fighting vehicles are also reactivated, thousand-year-old BMP 1-2s, and 200+ new BMP-3s are being produced. Let’s say in return the USA produces zero Bradleys, the successor IFV tests are underway (one of the 2 last-round vehicles is the Lynx, which we have put into service). I don’t know how much European IFV production/year is, but it’s probably less than the Russian one.
So what’s true and what’s not?
It’s true that the Russian military industry can surpass the entire NATO military industry in volume today in 2025 in many important categories (not in aircraft anymore) and that they have achieved great results in drone production and application.
However, in the long term, they certainly won’t be able to compete even with Europe, if the EU countries finally give in. It’s a complete projection that the Russian military industry would collapse, simply in 1-2 years, the stored ex-Soviet equipment will run out, i.e., the volume will decrease. But this is not a collapse. This is the “gray” picture.
There is no terrible Russian threat within 3-4 years, even if by some miracle they don’t have to keep a significant part of their army in Ukraine because even if there is a ceasefire, and 90-plus percent is not needed in Ukraine, like today, they still won’t be able to withdraw a significant part of their forces from there either. The bigger the slice they cut out of Ukraine, the longer the demarcation line, the more soldiers they need to hold it.
But there is no Russian collapse, neither military-industrial, nor economic, nor social. They can keep up this pace for years to come. That is, they are enough for Ukraine, not for Europe.
