Could a trial take the Trump Train off the rails?
'Ron DeSantis did the most to help his candidacy' during GOP debate: Howard Kurtz
'MediaBuzz' host Howard Kurtz joined 'Fox News @ Night' to discuss the highs and lows from the first GOP primary debate.
When a trial date was set in Donald Trump’s election-interference case, a collective shudder went through the political press corps.
Let’s just say the federal judge didn’t go along with the Trump team’s fantasy of delaying the trial until 2026.
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No, Judge Tanya Chutkan picked March 4 – about six months from now – for the Justice Department to prove the allegations in the indictment.
And, as every political scribe knows, that is one day before Super Tuesday.
The super label is well deserved. Republicans in 13 states, including California and Texas, will vote that day, picking more than a third of the convention delegates.
Former President Donald Trump's mugshot. (Fulton County Sheriff's Office)
So, not exactly an ideal day to be sitting in a courtroom where a jury will decide whether you committed a series of crimes in trying to overturn the 2020 Electoral College results.
But I’m going to break with the conventional wisdom here.
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If Trump doesn’t campaign a single day between now and the biggest day of the primaries, he’ll still have an overwhelming lead, barring, say, a loss in Iowa or New Hampshire.
Virtually every member of the MAGA movement is firmly committed to the former president. After all, he’s been indicted four times, and that’s generally boosted both his polling numbers and his fundraising. Plus, there’s that killer mug shot.
Do these voters need to hear Trump repeat the same applause lines at campaign rallies to keep backing him? I don’t think so. They have loved Trump for years and that’s not going to change now.
The rise of Trump, particularly in places that once were carried by Obama, has been a noteworthy phenomenon in politics, and the question remains for Biden will manage to reclaim them once again.
What’s more, Trump is a master at making news, whether through Truth Social posts, videos or TV interviews. He could squeeze all of that in despite the demands of a trial.
Now let’s say my calculation is off and all the trials and legal maneuvering costs Trump some support. Maybe some of his diehard fans tire of the chaos surrounding him.
So what? He is at 50 percent or higher, in one case closer to 60 percent, in a spate of recent national polls. He could lose 10 points and still win the nomination without breaking a sweat.
Keep in mind that a majority of Republicans believe these indictments are part of a partisan vendetta. They think the Biden Justice Department is out to get him, that it’s been weaponized against Republicans, that the charges are meaningless–and many don’t even want to know the details.
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As Trump posted yesterday, "These Indictments and lawsuits are all part of my political opponents campaign plan. It is Election Interference, and they are going to use the DOJ/FBI to help them, which is illegal. Crooked Joe pushed this litigation hard to get it done. This is a new low in Presidential Politics. To the Democrats, I say, ‘be careful what you wish for.’"
Former President Donald Trump takes the stage during an organizing event at Fervent Calvary Chapel on July 8, 2023, in Las Vegas. ((Ellen Schmidt/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Tribune News Service via Getty Images))
Now what could he be implying there? By the way, there is zero evidence that Biden "pushed this litigation" – and he has no influence over the New York and Georgia cases.
There is, of course, one giant caveat. If Trump is convicted in any of the four cases before clinching the nomination, it raises the prospect that he could spend some time in prison. Now it’s true that he could run from that undesirable locale. Most of the candidates in last week’s Fox debate, through a show of hands, said they’d back him as the nominee even if convicted.
But that feels like a game-changer. It’s harder to imagine a felon as president. Then he would be in some jeopardy.
For now, Trump is an extremely strong favorite to win his party’s nomination – whether he campaigns another day or not.
Howard Kurtz is the host of FOX News Channel's MediaBuzz (Sundays 11 a.m.-12 p.m. ET). Based in Washington, D.C., he joined the network in July 2013 and regularly appears on Special Report with Bret Baier and other programs.
Howard Kurtz is the host of FOX News Channel's MediaBuzz (Sundays 11 a.m.-12 p.m. ET). Based in Washington, D.C., he joined the network in July 2013 and regularly appears on Special Report with Bret Baier and other programs.
