After two months of U.S. military surveillance flights targeting Mexican drug cartels—with the initial phase focused on gathering signals intelligence (SIGINT) over cartel-controlled territory—a new NBC News report hints at the second phase...
The report cites six current and former U.S. military, law enforcement, and intelligence officials with knowledge of the Trump administration are considering targeted drone strikes against Mexican drug cartels - now designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) and Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs).
Here's more from NBC News:
Discussions among White House, Defense Department and intelligence officials, which are still at an early stage, have included possible drone strikes against cartel figures and their logistical networks in Mexico with the cooperation of Mexico's government, the sources said.
Still, the administration has made no final decision and reached no definitive agreement about countering the cartels. And unilateral covert action, without Mexico's consent, has not been ruled out and could be an option of last resort, the sources said. It is unclear whether American officials have floated the possibility of drone strikes to the Mexican government.
All six sources said SIGINT operations over Mexico have dramatically risen in recent months. A development readers have understood from the start of February:
USAF Spy Plane Runs SIGINT Operation Near Cabo As U.S. Preps For Potential Cartel Fight
USAF Spy Jet Flies Second SIGINT Operation On US Border With Focus On Narco Hub
CIA Reportedly Flying MQ-9 Spy Drones Over Mexico As Cartel Fight Nears
Border Czar "Expects" Kinetic Warfare Between U.S. Troops & Mexican Drug Cartels
U.S. Designates Mexican Cartels As "Foreign Terrorists," Signaling Financial Warfare Looms
US P-3B Orion Spy Plane Spotted Over Mexico As SIGINT Ops Target Cartels
Sources noted that Trump officials had pivoted the military, intelligence, and law enforcement resources toward combating the cartels.
Two guided-missile destroyers have recently been positioned in the region for a "southern border mission"...
Making sense of it all: Dismantling the command-and-control structures and networks of FTO-designated drug cartels in Mexico is part of a broader mission to secure hemispheric defense. We suspect Mexican banks could be targeted next—similar to the recent anti-money laundering penalty against TD Bank—as part of efforts to clean up the financial system across North America.
This will all come to an end under Trump.
The main concern for CIA officers or special forces units—typically operating under Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC)—who would likely be tasked with carrying out drone strikes and other targeted operations against cartels, is the risk of creating a power vacuum when cartel leadership is dismantled. The question becomes whether drone warfare is the most effective solution or if hybrid warfare tactics—similar to those used in Syria and other Middle Eastern conflicts—could be utilized to pressure or provoke rival cartels into turning on each other (save AGM-114 Hellfires for somewhere else).
