Trudeau's likely successor Mark Carney is seen as being strong on economy, tariff threats
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OTTAWA, Canada — As new tariffs came into effect on Tuesday, analysts say that if Canada's Liberal Party holds onto power, the party can thank President Donald Trump in part for such a reversal of political fortune.
Since Trump's inauguration, Canada's official opposition Conservative Party – once leading the governing Liberals by a wide margin – has seen their popularity in public-opinion polls gradually decline.
An Ipsos poll released last week found that, for the first time since the Liberals won the last federal election in 2021, they’re ahead of the Conservatives by two points, with 38% popularity compared to the Conservatives at 36%. Six weeks earlier, the Conservatives were leading the Liberals by 26 points. A general election is expected to be called as early as this spring by Trudeau's successor, who will be announced on Sunday.
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, told Fox News Digital that he has never seen a party experience such a rapid and dramatic drop during his four-decade career in polling.
Canada Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre holds a news conference in a hotel ballroom in Ottawa on Dec. 1, 2024. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press via AP)
He believes the Conservatives' decline is attributable to two factors.
Justin Trudeau, whose personal popularity has plummeted since he became Canada’s 23rd prime minister in 2015, will step down as head of the Canadian government and Liberal Party on March 9; "And the threat from Trump to use economic force on Canada to bend us to his knee and possibly absorb us as a 51st state," explained Bricker, about the president’s planned tariffs against Canada and his repeated references regarding annexation.
Throughout February, Nanos Research found the gap narrowing between the Liberals and Conservatives, who the month before were poised to form a "super-majority" government with as many as 240 members of Parliament (MPs) in an expanded 343-seat House of Commons that takes effect after the next general election.
"That’s completely out the window now," said Nik Nanos, founder and chief data scientist of the Canadian polling firm, who also believes Trudeau’s imminent departure and Trump’s rhetoric against Canada have contributed to the Liberals’ bump in the polls.
The president "has effectively changed the ballot question from: Is it time for a change? – which was bad news for the Liberals – to who can best deal with Donald Trump, the new existential threat to the Canadian economy?" offered Nanos.
Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, officially announced his bid for the federal Liberal Party leadership in Edmonton, Canada, on Jan. 16, 2025. (Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
He explained that Canadian Conservative Official Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre and his party played a part in the Liberals’ boost by "showing they were a little out of touch" in focusing on the Liberal government’s tax on carbon emissions and vowing to remove it while Canadians became increasingly concerned about Trump’s threats.
"In hindsight, when the Conservatives had a 27-point advantage in our polling, it didn’t have anything to do with Pierre Poilievre being strong or liked, or the Conservatives being brilliant strategists," said Nanos. "It all had to do with dislike of Justin Trudeau and people wanting change and the Conservatives being the agent of change."
According to the Ipsos poll, 86% percent of 1,000 respondents said that they want a general election "immediately" to have a federal government "with a strong mandate" to deal with Trump’s tariff threat.
Bricker said the Liberals’ lead in the polls, particularly in Canada’s most populous provinces of Ontario and Quebec, over the Conservatives could even widen should Mark Carney, the former governor of the central banks of England and Canada and the frontrunner in the Liberal leadership race, succeed Trudeau as prime minister.
President Donald Trump signs an executive order in the Oval Office on Feb. 25, 2025. (Pool)
Veteran Canadian pollster Angus Reid said the latest polling by his company found that 51% said Carney and the Liberals were best suited to improve relations with the U.S., including on tariffs, compared to 35% who chose the Conservatives under Poilievre, who is seen by many Canadians as holding a "Trump-light agenda."
From south of the border, the president has "eroded Conservative support because it completely changed the political dynamic in Canada, completely changed what could be considered the most important ballot question that was all about getting rid of some of the baggage from the Trudeau era," explained Reid, founder and chair of the Angus Reid Institute.
"Now it’s one of defending the sovereignty and economy of the country."
Another Angus Reid poll found that with Carney as Liberal leader, his party is virtually tied at 44% with the Conservatives, at 45% on voting intention. In Quebec, a Carney-led Liberal Party enjoys 31% support compared to the Conservatives at 22%.
Guests display a giant Canadian flag before a flag-raising ceremony on Feb. 15, 2025, in Toronto. (Yu Ruidong/China News Service/VCG via AP)
Reid said the annexation and tariffs issue especially resonates with Quebecers more than any other region in Canada.
Carney’s further challenge for Poilievre is that the former "on paper, looks like a Conservative," said Nanos.
"The guy worked in the banking sector and the private sector, like Goldman Sachs, and chaired, until recently, large enterprises like Bloomberg and Brookfield [Asset Management]. He walks and talks like a Conservative."
Carney, an Oxford-educated economist who has never held elected office, is expected to call a snap election should he be chosen as Trudeau’s successor.
If the polling numbers continue to rise in favor of the Liberals, they could not only win the national vote in such a contest but form a majority government, added Reid.
Currently, the Liberals have 153 MPs in the 338-seat House of Commons, which constitutes a minority government.
Christopher Guly is an Ottawa-based journalist and longtime member of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery. He has reported from Canada for several media outlets in the U.S. and the U.K. He can be followed on X @ChristopherGuly
