Apparently President Donald Trump's 'Victory Plan' for Ukraine will involve the war-ravaged country agreeing to grant the US unprecedented access to its rare earth elements in a more 'equitable' quid pro quo.
He told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday that "We’re handing them money hand over fist. We’re giving them equipment" - in reference to the Zelensky government, strongly suggesting they need to give something more in return. "We’re looking to do a deal with Ukraine, where they’re going to secure what we’re giving them with their rare earth and other things," he told reporters in the Oval Office.
"I want to have security of rare earth," he added in reference rare earth elements, which has also been hotly sought after by other great industrial technology powers like China and Russia.
They are found in small deposits but have a huge variety of applications. These rare elements are useful in everything from electronics to defense systems to health care to batteries to clean energy. China has long had unrivaled dominance in the rare earth market, but others are catching up, and it appears Trump has set this as a priority of sorts.
The Hill notes of Trump's comments, however, that "It’s not clear whether Trump’s desired deal would refer only to the elements that are considered rare earths, or if he is also interested in minerals like lithium and titanium, of which Ukraine has a significant supply."
The Zelensky government may actually be considering it, per FT:
A person close to Zelenskyy told the Financial Times that Trump’s remarks “seem to align with the ‘victory plan’ presented to him in the fall”. The person said Ukraine had offered Trump “special terms” for co-operation on key resources, stressing the need to protect them from Russia and Iran. “Of course, we are ready to work with America,” the person added.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Trump’s rare earth metals demand to Ukraine "an offer to purchase aid."
"Well, probably, if we call a spade a spade, this is an offer to buy aid, that is, not to continue to provide it on a gratuitous or other basis, but to provide it on a commercial basis," he told reporters in Moscow on Tuesday. "It is better, of course, not to provide assistance at all and thereby contribute to the end of the conflict."
The only problem for Kiev and Washington is that the bulk of Ukraine’s main rare earth deposits are currently under Russian occupation in the territories annexed by Moscow...
Ukraine has lost the rare earth metal reserves promised to Trump by Zelensky
— Dagny Taggart (@DagnyTaggart963) February 4, 2025
Ukrainian media points out this after the US President said he wanted to receive guarantees for rare earth metals from Ukraine.
According to data for April 2023, the value of Ukraine's mineral… pic.twitter.com/oXdgi0R8Ed
This is not the first time such a controversial plan has been floated. Late last year US Senator Lindsey Graham kept repeating the demand to gain access to Ukraine's resources in media appearances.
Lavrov had blasted the plan at the time, and said it shows what Washington is really after: "It is no coincidence that US Senator Lindsey Graham said outright (he is not a diplomat and does not hide his thoughts), that the US needs to ensure that Russia suffer a defeat in Ukraine, because there are many rare-earth metals, including lithium," the top Russian diplomat said in November. "He said so to Vladimir Zelensky when he visited him recently. He said that the US needs these riches. And he added that they would help Ukraine and in return they would take all this from it as payback," Lavrov added.
As of Tuesday morning, The Washington Post writes that Ukraine welcomes Trump offer for its minerals in trade for military support, citing Ukrainian officials who say Kiev is ready to work with Trump's business-like approach.
We've noted before that China alone accounts for 85-90 percent of the world’s rare earth mine-to-metal refining. What’s more, Chinese refineries supply 68 percent of the world’s cobalt, 65 percent of nickel, and 60 percent of EV-battery-grade lithium. As a result, a whopping 75 percent of all EV batteries are made in China.